Weaponizing Water: How China Controls the Mekong
Global Times
The Mekong river is one of the longest rivers in the world, flowing from Tibet where it collects melting snow from the Himalayas in China, through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Every year this major waterway oscillates alongside the rainy season when a massive pulse of water swells the river as monsoon rains and Himalayan melted snow flows downstream. The river provides the livelihoods of some 60 million people in Southeast Asia and supplies millions more with the necessities of life such as food and water.
However, recently the river has been suffering from an increasing number of dams being built along its northern banks. The mighty Mekong river is being strangled by dozens of dams in China, Laos, and Cambodia, threatening the livelihoods of millions. During the region's 2020 rainy season, the river reached a record low, beating last year's own dismal record. Tonle Sap, the largest lake in Southeast Asia, normally fills for five months during the monsoon season. This year, its annual rise lasted five days.
Despite these record lows for the Mekong river in Southeast Asia, the upper Mekong in China’s Yunnan province received above-normal rainfall. Even though climate change does play a role in the Mekong’s fading banks, it is the construction of dams, not a lack of rain, that is most detrimental.
As of now, China has completed 11 dams with many more at various levels of planning and competition. Laos has two operational dams on the river with plans to build at least seven more while Cambodia has two in various stages of construction. The dams in both Laos and Cambodia are financially backed by China through its Belt and Road Initiative and intend to export much of this electricity to China. This shows China’s influence and determination to produce electricity from the river at any cost and its ability to pressure other nations, whose people want the river undammed, to comply.
Through the damming of the Mekong, China is using what has been termed “hydro-diplomacy” to exert control over Southeast Asia, bringing the threat of further economic and environmental ruin to its southern neighbors. With China’s dams in the Yunnan province alone, China can withhold some 47 million cubic meters of water from flowing downstream. This has the potential to cripple the lifeline of much of Southeast Asia in one swing which China both knows and utilizes to influence the region — especially when it comes to exerting power over America.
In 2015, China established the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, a body that helps govern the shared use of the Mekong, with membership including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand. While this organization was formed under the guise of cooperation, it is actually a tool for China to force out U.S. institutions in the region, leaving Southeast Asian states without a choice in partnership and limiting America’s actions in the region. Without western institutions in the region, China’s regional hegemony becomes more secure, and exerting pressure on its small southern neighbors becomes much more effective. This is because it is harder for western-oriented nations such as the U.S. and Japan to insert themselves into regional affairs without the necessary institutional infrastructure currently being whittled away by China.
If China’s goal was truly cooperation, it would have joined the Mekong River Commission, an organization that has its roots going back to 1957. The MRC, founded by the United Nations, has the same goal as China’s LMC: provide a platform for regional cooperation for the shared resource that is the Mekong. And, while a “Dialogue Partner” of the MRC, China most likely found that the organization would be impossible to control and therefore created its own version in the LMC to circumvent the MRC’s oversight.
In sidestepping the UN’s MRC, China exhibited its true colors, avoiding actual cooperation and instead creating a facade through its own organization. China, which finds it hard to exert complete control over existing international organizations, instead opts to form its own when the opportunity arises, using them to propel diplomatic power eastward to gain the upper hand. Some of these include the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank. Through its eastward push of international organizations and norms, China is increasingly more able to exert influence over not only Asia but the world.
By forcefully exerting pressure on Southeast Asian nations along the Mekong by withholding the capacity to stop the rivers flow, China is directly interfering in President Biden’s ability to garner allies in Southeast Asia. This puts the five countries downstream of China in a feeble position with little choice — either follow China’s lead or face the ecological and economic repercussions. Furthermore, because the Mekong’s resources are a shared good, China’s control over the river's flow has the capacity to turn the southern nations against each other.
This is due to the fact that, if one nation provokes China’s wrath, the entire region will suffer if China cuts the tap. By turning China’s southern neighbors against each other, China is able to simultaneously weaken all of them without lifting a finger, further increasing its grasp on the region.
Southeast Asia as a region is extremely vital to both the U.S. and China, making it a key diplomatic battleground for the two nations. From China’s perspective, Southeast Asia is a vulnerable underbelly that, if controlled by a hostile power, can utilize it as a staging ground for both military and economic missions. Militarily, the region is hard to defend, offering a passage into China’s heart. Economically, the nations south of China have the capacity to cut it off from most of the world as most of China’s shipping travels through the South China Sea. This shipping comprises not only goods but resources such as the oil and natural gas China relies on to power itself.
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency
Recognizing Southeast Asia as China’s Achilles heel, Kurt Campell, President Biden’s Indo-Pacific coordinator commented on the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a multilateral organization of nations from Southeast Asia, including those that border the Mekong. As the U.S. continues to pivot to Asia, a diplomatic policy that began with President Obama, Southeast Asia is key to countering China’s growth. Southeast Asian countries have a number of grievances with their large northern neighbor over crime rates, drug usage, and, of course, the damming of the Mekong. By taking advantage of these openings created by China’s ruthless diplomacy, America could gain a number of regional allies who are willing to cooperate because of their animosity towards China. This could give the U.S. a large amount of leverage over their rising competitor, enabling them to counter China’s rise.
Unfortunately, because China has such a strong grip on the Mekong, it becomes difficult for nations along its banks to align themselves with the U.S. out of fear of the consequences. Furthermore, the nations along the Mekong pressure each other to avoid becoming too friendly with the U.S. out of fear that if one nation aligns with the western power, the water will be cut for all. China’s effective strategy, alongside America’s poor diplomacy in the region, has made gaining new Southeast Asian allies difficult for the U.S., enabling China’s continued rise as a regional hegemonic power.
If Biden is to counter China’s rise and gain a foothold in the region, he must help restore the Mekong’s flow to an adequate level. To accomplish this, Biden has a few options. The first is to push the MRC to reaffirm its legitimacy as the organization governing the Mekong’s shared use and directly call for China to join the organization. By calling China out for its avoidance of an internationally recognized body and attempting to build its own for the same purpose, Biden has the capacity to stunt the legitimacy and capacity of the LMC while expanding goodwill with Southeast Asian nations. This would hopefully increase China’s integration with established international institutions and cull China’s attempt to diplomatically control the river's flow.
Secondly, Biden should show his willingness to support Southeast Asian nations. By making stronger commitments and showing action in the region's affairs through infrastructure or educational projects aimed at benefiting the region's population, Biden can build better relationships with the people and countries along the lower Mekong while decreasing their reliance on the river's sustenance. Because so many of the people living along the Mekong are poor, they rely on it for fishing and farming. However, by expanding the economic opportunities along the river, Biden can decrease that reliance while boosting the economies of those nations.
Finally, Biden should assure nations along the lower Mekong that, should China decide to cut the water flow, America will be willing to stand beside all the affected nations, sending aid as necessary to those affected. While such an operation would be expensive, it would call China’s bluff and significantly weaken its capacity to control its southern neighbors. A public policy of aiding these nations, much like a modern-day Marshall plan, would strengthen the bonds between America and potential eastern partners. Though China might never cut the water’s flow, having such plans in place would further disincentivize aggressive Chinese actions against its southern neighbors.
China’s weaponization of water is extremely dangerous and shows how far China will go to exert its influence internationally. Biden has two core choices — sit idly and watch as potential allies succumb to Chinese pressure or act to ensure a more secure future, not only for Southeast Asia but the world as well. By supporting regimes that are willing to oppose China with subsidies and investments aimed at diversifying the economies of lower Mekong states, Biden would be able to strengthen their position while building a stronger partnership with them. Furthermore, investment in other areas of those countries' economies, such as infrastructure and education, would also benefit them both in the short and long terms.
Biden has a number of tough decisions to make when facing China in Southeast Asia, especially over the Mekong. It is up to him to determine if and how America will stand up to China’s weaponization of water to help maintain the safety of the Mekong and its people.