A California Exodus? California’s Loss of a House Seat
Image: Philip Cheung./ New York Times
Based on the results of the 2020 US Census, California will be losing a seat in the House of Representatives, going down from 53 to 52 seats, for the first time in the state’s history. This loss of a House seat is another sign of what red state conservatives have called the California exodus, or the mass migration of Californians out of the state. These California critics are quick to blame high cost of living, high taxes, and liberal policies as the reasons for this exodus. However, the supposed California exodus appears to be another attempt by conservatives to disparage California and its progressive policies and draws attention away from the state’s real issues.
The term exodus and the loss of a House seat both would seem to indicate that the state’s population is declining. Over the past decade, California’s population has in fact grown by 6.1 percent. However, because the number of House seats is fixed at 435, states whose population growth rates were higher than California gained enough population to warrant California losing a seat. Regardless, California’s population growth is indeed slowing as 6.1 percent is far below the growth rates that propelled California from 2 million to 34 million people from 1900 to 2000. Nevertheless, California’s critics cite dramatic statistics as evidence, such as how net departures from San Francisco increased 649 percent in the past year. But they also fail to mention that of the residents leaving San Francisco, two-thirds stayed within the Bay Area and 80 percent stayed within the state, according to data from the California Policy Lab. This migration within the state suggests that the state’s liberal bent and policies are not to blame.
The discussion around this migration out of California often revolves around companies relocating their headquarters or famous wealthy individuals moving away from the state. The media, especially right-wing media, is quick to write stories on how Tesla CEO Elon Musk moved to Texas or how Hewlett Packard is moving its headquarters out of Silicon Valley. However, centering this narrative of an exodus on business and the wealthy incentivizes California legislators and policymakers to provide tax breaks in an effort to stem this out-migration. Emphasizing tax policy draws attention away from the real issue that is burdening Californians and pushing new residents away from the state: the high cost and low availability of housing.
According to a report from the California Department of Housing and Community Development, keeping up with housing demand requires that California build roughly 180,000 new housing units per year by 2025, but the state is currently building less than 80,000 new housing units per year on average. Given the high demand and slow growing supply, the median home price in California has soared to $758,990 as of March, a new record for the state. The exorbitantly high cost of housing suggests that California’s lagging population growth is a result of fewer people moving into the state rather than large numbers leaving the state. If residents were actually moving away in large numbers, we would likely see housing prices fall as more residents sell their homes, yet the median home price continues to rise as the housing supply is failing to grow fast enough to meet demand.
With more than two-thirds of all residential land in California devoted to single-family housing, changes to zoning laws to allow for more multi-family housing or more units per lot are common targets for legislators looking to increase the housing supply. However, year after year, legislator’s attempts to make changes to zoning laws constantly fail, often thanks to the vehement opposition of local anti-development groups, often referred to as NIMBYs, which stands for “Not in My Backyard.”
Although anti-development activists do raise legitimate concerns over how new housing may lead to gentrification, opposing new affordable housing will continue to push potential residents away from California, especially low and middle income individuals who feel they will never be able to afford a home in California. While the departure of high profile tech companies or individuals may draw more attention, the media should share more than just the perspectives of the wealthy and policymakers should put lower and middle income people first when considering change. If this housing crisis continues, California is at risk of losing much more than a single seat in the House of Representatives.