Ireland's Shifting Politics
Supporters of Sinn Fein. (Henry Nicholls / Reuters)
The ascendency of anti-establishment politics has reached Ireland. In February, Sinn Fein— the former political wing of the Irish Revolutionary Army—won the most votes in the elections for Ireland’s Dail, or parliament. The outcome shocked even Sinn Fein. Despite winning a plurality of votes, it left many constituencies uncontested and thus merely tied for the most seats in the new parliament. Sinn Fein’s success threatens to upend the traditional stasis of Irish politics, long dominated by the center-right parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and makes the prospect of Irish unification more realistic than ever before.
Sinn Fein has a deeply troubled past. It is linked inextricably with the Troubles, a long period of violence in Northern Ireland beginning in 1969 and ending in the 1990s. The conflict divided Northern Ireland, pitting paramilitary groups in favor of remaining politically affiliated with Britain against those who desired independence and to join the Republic of Ireland. British forces also played a role, typically tilting the scales in favor of loyalist forces. Political allegiances emerged on the basis of religion; Catholics filled the republican ranks, while Protestants favored loyalism. The Irish Republican Army became notorious for terrorist activities during this time period and its close association with Sinn Fein has handicapped the party politically. Sinn Fein officially denies any historical or modern relationship with the IRA, a stance at odds with the head of the Irish police, who recently stated that the party is still overseen by the Army Council of the IRA.
Sinn Fein, along with most other republican remnants of the Troubles, is a socialist party. It is the only large leftist party in Irish politics. Its two largest rivals, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, are both center-right organizations. In the February elections, Sinn Fein’s main campaign plank was the creation of new and affordable housing in Ireland, where, much like in America, increasing urban housing costs are driving Millennials out of cities. It also opposed the now complete British exit from the European Union, which has caused controversy regarding the soft border between the north and the south. And with the departure of former chief Gerry Adams, a highly polarizing figure in Irish politics, Sinn Fein has softened their public image to appeal to those outside of their usual voter base.
The shifting ground of Irish politics closely mirrors the changes occuring in Germany, especially the 2017 elections for the German Bundestag, or parliament. In the 2017 elections, center-left and center-right parties took the top two positions, while an insurgent anti-immigrant party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the third most seats. The AfD’s views are odious to the mainstream political elite of Germany, and many find aspects of AfD rhetoric reminiscent of the Nazis. The success of the AfD forced the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats into a coalition government, despite the negative political consequences both parties have endured for forming the Grand Coalition once again. The situation is largely the same in Ireland. Sinn Fein, the insurgents, have forced Fianna Fail and Fine Gael into a delicate situation. Despite the rivalry between the two parties, the idea of Sinn Fein forming a government is motivating the two parties to attempt to form an operable coalition. If Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are unable to do so, polling predicts that Sinn Fein will comfortably win a second election, with roughly equal support to that of the other two parties combined.
Beyond its parallels in German politics, the rise of Sinn Fein fits within the global political trend towards outsider movements. These movements are typically lumped together as populist, which disguises their many dissimilarities. On the right, there is a trend towards illiberalism. The current governments of Poland, Hungary and Turkey all fit into this category, much to the consternation of the European Union. Many would argue that the current American government increasingly fits this mold, too. Meanwhile, leftist movements have put pressure on traditional center-left parties and are offering an alternative to centrist politics. Britain’s Labour Party has shifted decidedly leftwards under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, while the Green Party is outstripping the Social Democrats in Germany and Bernie Sanders briefly emerged as a frontrunner in the Democratic presidential campaign in the US. Sinn Fein, perhaps because of its lack of a leftist rival in Ireland, has consolidated support for a leftist vision of Irish society guided by social democratic principles. Whether from the left or the right, the insurgent movements have flummoxed centrists and the global elite, who have yet to form a coherent response to the challenge they face.
The success of Sinn Fein also ups the ante on Irish unification. Sinn Fein operates in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and does not recognize the legitimacy of British rule of the north, as it is a remnant of its imperial rule. It is the second largest party in the Northern Irish Assembly, holding 26 seats, and any MPs who win election to the Westminster Parliament abstain from taking their seats in protest of the longtime British involvement in the North. The British Secretary of State is empowered to hold a referendum in the North should unification seem likely, which they may do at their discretion.. The February election result, however, puts pressure on the British government to consider the possibility of unification much more seriously than it has in the past. Support for unification parties implies support for unification, and the rise of Sinn Fein, as well as the messy fallout from Brexit, indicates that unification is not as far fetched as it once appeared.
Ireland is the latest evidence of a changing global political tide. As technological growth continues to drive global economic integration, voter frustration with the mainstream has resulted in the rise of populist currents. Sinn Fein’s success forces the Irish political elite to adapt to a changing landscape, one in which historical connections matter less than the emotive power of parties and their opposition to stagnation and the difficulties posed by modernity. While part of a global trend, Sinn Fein arises from a specific historical and political context, making it a uniquely Irish entity. The fallout in the Dail is yet to be seen, but at minimum Sinn Fein is forcing Ireland out of its political comfort zone. The world is changing, and Ireland is changing with it.