Ukraine, the USA, and the 2024 election
Image credit: AP News
February 24, 2022. Devastation and war. The beginning of a several-year assault on the sovereign country of Ukraine.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine date back to the 1960s and 1970s, foreshadowing the legal dissolution of the U.S.S.R. Throughout Central and Eastern Europe, many countries within the Soviet bloc had started to protest the elitist Communist Party that pushed millions of Soviet citizens to starvation. Many of them did not have access to necessities like clothing and food.
Following Ronald Reagan’s presidency in the 1980s, the Soviet economy was isolated from the global economy, resulting in oil and gas revenue hitting a record low. Due to the interdependence of the economy, politics, and authority, Russia slowly lost power over the rest of Eastern Europe, leading to protests.
Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the U.S.S.R., saw the dissolution of his country upon his resignation on December 25th, 1991, after receiving low approval rates and finding himself deposed by a coup. As of December 31st, 1991, Soviet Republics that had not been seized by Russia were terminated.
The Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine was adopted by the Supreme Soviet of Ukraine on the 24th of August following a coup staged by the Communist Party to regain control. When the Act was put to the Supreme Soviet, 321 out of 360 attendants voted in its favor. Following the Act, Ukraine held a referendum on the first of December, in which an overwhelming number of the population voted for its independence.
Since breaking from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has swayed between Russian and Western influences. However, this drastically changed in 2014.
The annexation of Crimea by Russia occurred when pro-Russian demonstrations erupted in Crimea, ousting the Ukrainian President. Russian troops without insignia slowly took over militarily cardinal locations. March 18th marked the official annexation of Crimea as Russia made it into a federal subject — a violation of international law that marked the beginning of the ongoing conflict.
This ultimately led to the global community condemning Russia and Ukraine alternately, and turning to Western Alliances such as the European Union.
Since 1991, the U.S. and Ukraine have sustained diplomatic relations. The United States Department of State acknowledges Ukraine as a free and democratic state with many U.S. policies centering on its allyship with Ukraine through economic and social politics. The two countries have held bilateral relations upon the establishment of permanent normal trade relations status. Some Ukrainian exports are agricultural products, iron and steel, and, most notably, oil. U.S. exports include seafood, coal, vehicles, and machinery.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has a direct impact on the United States and its citizens. Because Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, energy prices have been affected. A study showed that within a few hours of the attack, Brent crude oil prices saw a 56.33% surge and there was a 52.33% increase in West Texas Intermediate oil prices. Ukraine and Russia are also significant producers of fertilizer. Disruptions in fertilizer exports would primarily impact European agriculture, but could also lead to increased food prices globally.
If Russia successfully breaks through Ukraine’s lines, we will see an increase in torture of political opposition, murder in occupied territories, oppression of minorities, and the forced “re-education” of Ukrainians into Russian society. With control over Ukraine, Russia will have the power to threaten other NATO countries, pushing the U.S. to increase budget spending on defense in Europe.
I sat down with three students from schools across the nation. After a long conversation regarding political activism, college students, voting, and international affairs, the students each asked me a question regarding Ukraine.
A fellow UC Davis student inquired, “How has American attention and involvement changed towards the Ukrainian and Russian War since the attention towards Palestine began?”
This is an amazing question and incredibly complicated. The Israel-Gaza Conflict has grown to be a very well-recognized current event, just like the Ukrainian-Russian War. The call for Palestinian liberation has come hand in hand with a call for Ukrainian and Crimean liberation. In a way, we see a paralleled situation, with many stating the obvious similarity of illegal occupation.
Internationally, there has been very consistent involvement in Ukraine. As of January 15th, 2024, there has been a sum of $380 billion committed to Ukraine through military assistance, funding, and humanitarian aid. The United States has actively contributed the most aid, valued at around $175 billion. Other significant committers include Germany and the United Kingdom, with the European Union collectively committing approximately $93 billion. Outside of North America and Europe, South Korea and Japan have cashed in large sums of resources.
In terms of media coverage, American attention has wavered a bit since the start of the war. With so many conflicts coming up from the time that the war began to the present day, many news studios don’t have as large a focus on it. The key to what’s deemed newsworthy is an event that is timely or new. However, it has brought many opportunities that focus on on-the-ground reporting to maintain viewer engagement. Media outlets believe that highlighting why it should pique our interest and its political implications will keep coverage on Ukraine for a while.
Prior to the election, a student from Brown University posed the question, “Which presidential candidate has a foreign policy that’ll be more successful in helping Ukraine?”
Donald Trump has built an amicable relationship with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Most memorably, at a rally in Conway, South Carolina, Trump said he would not defend NATO members from Russia in the event that they don’t increase their defense spending, while remaining critical of the Biden administration’s choice to send billions of dollars of aid. At that same rally, he told the crowd he would encourage Russia to do as it wishes. The presidential debate against Harris in September gave Trump another opportunity to change his perspective on the war. Upon being asked if he wanted Ukraine to win the war, he responded with, “I want the war to stop.” Many speculate that he would want to force Ukraine’s hand in negotiating a deal.
Kamala Harris has a different relationship with the war. In her address at the Democratic convention, she pledged to stand strong with NATO allies and Ukraine. She has also been involved in many affairs on behalf of the Biden administration, which was slow in its response at the start of the war. She has met with President Zelenskyy on multiple occasions, both before and after the invasion. Her history with Ukrainian affairs is quite limited, but she pushed for global support of the country.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ policies would have most benefited Ukraine. The incoming Trump administration’s may not be so favorable.
Finally, a University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign student queried, “How has the polarization of American politics affected the support that Ukraine has received at this time?”
The major political parties of the United States, Republican and Democrat, have ideologically moved further apart. The parties have shifted apart within the left-right political spectrum. This can be largely credited to the changes in the composition of the parties as well as the polarization of the media. The Democratic party has become more educated and ethnically diverse, while the Republican party constitutes an increasing number of non-college-educated white people. Additionally, partisan news outlets have prioritized exposing their audiences to bias and information that aligns with their viewpoints, ultimately forming echo chambers.
This all contributes to the fact that in recent years, there has been an extreme divide between Republicans and Democrats regarding U.S. involvement in Ukraine. According to survey data regarding U.S. support, about half of Republicans (or independents leaning Republican) reported that the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine. This is in comparison to 16 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents saying an overly sufficient amount of assistance was given. Moreover, 36 percent of Democrats believe the U.S. isn’t providing enough support. Partisan views regarding aid are extremely different and will continue to grow in their separate ways. Ultimately, this polarization affects policy decisions because political supporters are what dictate the direction of the party, creating an incredibly volatile and complex environment for both the U.S. and Ukraine.
With the recent election leaving Trump as the presidential nominee, there’s a lot of uncertainty for Ukrainians. Many are concerned about U.S. foreign policy, considering Trump’s fluctuating opinion towards the war and finding a resolution. We can only hope that the new administration will protect Ukraine and promote its sovereignty.