The Russian-Ukraine Conflict: A Cold War Ideology

The Cold War, the great power struggle between Russia and the US (and more broadly Western influence), is known to have ended in the late 20th century. However, with the recent actions and demands of Russia, this doesn’t seem to be the case. As the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has come into play, it seems as if the Cold War ideology has not been erased but rather has been festering, and now has been thrust into the spotlight once again.

In October 2021, Russia started moving troops to the Ukraine border with no apparent reason, prompting fears of an invasion. Then in December 2021, it issued a list of demands, such as banning Ukraine from entering NATO and reducing NATO troops and military equipment in Eastern Europe. The German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Russia’s demands resembled “Cold War demands.” She used these terms because Russia’s demands over European security aim to limit and reduce Western military power in countries Russia believes to be in their own sphere of influence. The West has, however, rejected the idea that “Russia has a right to influence the foreign policy of countries close to its borders, as the Soviet Union did during the Cold War.” Russia’s actions and words are being compared to that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. This goes to show how the current conflict that Russia has initiated is just a continuance of the Cold War ideology, taking place in a new context but with the same end goal in mind: decreasing Western influence in Eastern Europe and increasing their influence over other countries’ decisions.

 Russian officials believe that in 1990, as the Cold War was winding down, the US made a promise to Russia that the NATO alliance would not expand into the former Eastern Bloc. But as NATO opened its doors to ex-Soviet Republics in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Russian officials have made their disdain for Western expansion increasingly clear.

Then, in 2008, NATO declared its intent to induct Ukraine and Georgia. Already growing uneasy and wary of increasing NATO alliances in Eastern Europe, Russia declared that including Ukraine and Georgia would be crossing a line and as Putin put it, be considered a “hostile act towards Russia.” 

In the very same year, Russian troops were built up along its border with Georgia, where countless standoffs ensued. This led to the five day war between Russia and Georgia, where both sides violated their 1991 ceasefire agreement over the disputed territory of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia did this to demonstrate its military strength and also maintain its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Russia took control of the South Ossetia capital, but halted its advance to Georgia after reaching a ceasefire agreement. After this short war, Russia proceeded to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, though few other countries have followed.

The crisis between Russia and Ukraine officially started in 2013. In November of that year, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal that would allow more economic integration with the European Union. This led to huge protests in the capital city of Kyiv that only increased after a violent crackdown. As a result, the president fled the country in early 2014. Putin framed these protests as a facsict coup backed by Western nations; he stated that these protests threatened Crimia’s ehtnic Russian majority to justify a covert invasion of Crimiea, which he framed as a rescue operation. Western nations saw this statement as “baseless propaganda reminiscent of the Soviet era.” Again, we see how Putin took action and made statements related back to the Cold War era, suggesting that this ideology continues to influence his actions today. He used a similar rhetoric to justify his support for separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine, who have clashed withUkraine forces since 2014.

Throughout the years, the international community has tried to end the violence. Starting in early 2015, France, Germany, along with Russia and Ukraine, developed the Minsk Accords, an agreement calling for a ceasefire, full Ukrainian control of the conflict regions, and withdrawal of heavy weaponry; however, these Accords have been unsuccessful in brokering peace. In 2016, NATO sent four battalions to rotate around certain Eastern European countries to deter Russia from further aggression in Europe. Then in 2017, the US sent two army brigades to further bolster NATO’s presence. Then in 2018, the US increased their security assistance to Ukraine with weapons, sanctioned Russians officials and companies, and with other NATO countries, performed large scale air exercises in Ukraine.

And besides Russian boots on the ground in Georgia and Ukraine, it's no secret that Russian hybrid warfare has targeted former soviet bloc countries for nearly a decade now. From misinformation campaigns to large-scale cyber attacks, Putin’s regime has bullied and attempted to fracture its former satellites. Policy director for the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative at the Brookings Institution, Jessica Brandt, states that “On an ongoing basis, Russia uses a suite of asymmetric tools — including information manipulation and cyber operations — to weaken the European security order and undermine democratic states and institutions that could organize against its interests.” In fact, many other former Soviet states have been “pressured into closer political and security relations with Moscow or into a neutral, marginal international status — by Russia leveraging economic and military ties or exploiting a territorial conflict.” For example, Russia used Armenia’s 2020 war with Azerbaijan to introduce Russian military troops into the region, stating they were peacekeepers; however, Russia has taken over managing Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey from the previous OSCE Minsk group.

Putin is concerned about Ukraine joining NATO because he believes it might threaten Russia’s security, and more importantly, it could decrease his influence and power at home. Ukraine is important to Russia due to their deep economic, political, and cultural bonds. There are also a large number of ethnic Russians that live in the south and east regions of Ukraine. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost its permanent hold over Ukraine; letting Ukraine fall into Western influence is seen as a threat to Russia’s superpower image and viewed as a blow to their intentional prestige. This line of reasoning for Putin’s action highlights that the Cold War ideology is still at play in today’s international order. Thus, although the Cold War officially ended in the late 1900s, Cold War ideology is still present and influencing the actions of major countries today Just as the globe was in danger during the Cold War, the world is also facing the negative consequences today due to the same ideological conflict; the invasion is not only impacting the two countries at war but countries and people around the world.

The impact of this invasion will have far reaching global consequences. One major impact will be a refugee crisis, as Ukrainians flee for safety as their country comes under attack. This war could displace up to 5 million people. Not only that, but since Ukraine is one of the largest wheat suppliers in the developing world. Russian military operations could lead to increased food prices in places such as Yemen, Lebanon, and Libya. Another major impact will be on energy supply in Europe. 30% of the European Union’s natural gas is provided by Russia, and Russia has already started reducing its supply, causing energy prices to increase. Russia’s actions could cause shortages of gas and create shocks to the global economy.

But now that a full-blown, overt invasion of Ukraine has begun, what does this mean for the Eastern Bloc that Putin has long been trying to isolate from Western influence? For citizens across the former Soviet republics, the invasion of Ukraine is raising serious security concerns and questions about the future of their sovereignty. 

Many Eastern European countries are taking steps to prepare themselves in case Russia decides to expand its invasion beyond Ukraine. Guerrilla forces are being trained in Estonia. This nation is holding military sport contests, which include “25-mile ruck marches, evasion exercises, plant identification, and others which test skills useful for an insurgent force.” It is also encouraging citizens to keep arms at home. Latvia is also focusing on training its citizens to build a “home guard;” it implemented its plan of allowing “home guard” citizens to keep weapons and night vision devices at home. Latvia is also investing heavily in special operation forces, increasing the forces to three times their original size. Poland is buying large sums of military equipment. Not only that, but Poland has taken in a majority of the Ukrainian refugees, as they share a border with Ukraine, and has even set up a fund to help the refugees. NATO has also deployed forces to the Baltic states and Poland to deter a Russian invasion. The fact that other countries are preparing to defend their nations demonstrates the genuine fear Russia has aroused across the globe and the possibility that Russia could have a larger goal in mind than just Ukraine; this also illustrates the fear of this conflict turning into a World War III. Their methods of preparation, though useful, may not be enough if Russia does decide to invade, as they will probably need more men and military equipment to defend against Russia’s army. They should continue, as some of the nearby nations are already doing, to strengthen their military in terms of numbers and equipment. 

Seeing the reaction of these countries as well as NATO illustrates their concern that Russia might expand its invasion past Ukraine and into other countries. Though Russia has denied these claims, countries and leaders around the world are worried about what might happen next. With Russia still holding onto its Cold War ideology and worried about maintaining its sphere of influence in Europe, it is not crazy to think that it might have a broader goal in mind, especially since many Eastern European countries have come under Western influence.

Although Western states have garnered a surprising amount of unity in their response to the invasion of Ukraine, it is not entirely clear that their de-escalation tactics are Vladimir Putin’s goals — and if they will be sufficient deterrence for future invasions.

The Cold War was thought to be an era of the past. But with Russia’s actions today, this might not be the case anymore. By trying to match the West's Power while increasing its own influence, Russia is illustrating the core ideology of the Cold War.