The Israel-UAE Diplomatic Deal: A Historic Shift with Perilous Consequences

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed present their copies of signed agreements for the Abraham Accords in Washington, U.S., September 15, 2020. (Tom Brenner | Reuters)

Beginning with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in August 2020, many Middle Eastern countries have started to consider normalizing relations with Israel. Brokered by the United States, the Israel-UAE peace agreement (named the Abraham Accords Peace Agreement) formalizes economic relations, scientific and security cooperation, and, in time, full diplomatic ties between the two nations. Furthermore, despite the condemnation expressed by Iran, Turkey, and Palestinians, Bahrain has already normalized ties with Israel, and Sudan and Morocco are likely to seek normalization as well. 

Since its establishment as a Jewish state in 1948, Israel has remained diplomatically isolated from most nations in the predominantly Muslim-Arab Middle East. While Egypt and Jordan have made peace with the state of Israel in 1979 and in 1994, respectively, other Arab countries have decided to withhold recognition until Palestine is designated as an autonomous nation. Abandoning their fellow states’ rejection of Israel, Bahrain and the UAE have set the foundations for a future in the Middle East in which Israel is recognized by its neighbors. 

Although this historical normalization further cripples the Palestinian cause, it has protected Palestinians from U.S. President Trump’s Middle East peace plan for the Israel-Palestine Conflict. The plan has been characterized as demanding few concessions from the Israelis while imposing excessively harsh requirements on the Palestinians; specifically, it would mandate annexation of the Jordan Valley and 30 percent of the West Bank. The Abraham Accords’ formalization implies that Israel must agree to suspend its planned annexation of areas of the occupied West Bank in order for the deal to succeed. 

While this exchange may have prevented the loss of West Bank land, the overwhelming Palestinian perspective is one of abandonment and indignation. Palestinian leaders have denounced the UAE-Israel normalization, as well as the succeeding ones, as a betrayal by their crucial Arab allies. The Palestinians have such little international support and recognition as it is and, with the dwindling support of nearby Arab allies, they may be compelled to reconsider and transform their goals for statehood. If this pattern of normalization is replicated by other states, the strategy of Arab anti-normalization (maintained until the Israel-UAE deal) will fail in its goal of isolating Israel; instead, it will have isolated the Palestinians.

Iran, as one of the largest powers in the Middle East, has explicitly vocalized disapproval of the peace deal. The Iranian foreign ministry issued a statement that condemned the deal as “strategically stupid,” denounced Israel as “fake, illegitimate, and criminal,” and called the UAE verdict “a shameful act” and “a dagger in the back of the Palestinian people and all Muslims.” Given Israel and the UAE’s shared fear of Iran, the Emiratis will likely take advantage of their greater access to U.S. military equipment—including access to the world’s most advanced fighter aircraft, the F-35. If this materializes, the UAE will become the second Middle Eastern country to be equipped with this weaponry, which is an additional source of concern for Iran. In essence, the UAE’s decision made evident to Iran and all their proxies that there exist two factions in the region today—one includes the Emiratis, who want to let the future bury the past, and the other includes the Iranians, who desire to continue burying the future with the past. 

The Abraham Accords have exacerbated the worsening relations between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran. As the U.S.-Israel alliance has always been strong, the United States played an integral role in the success of this peace deal and, therefore, has received much of the blowback from Iran. In 2020, starting with the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, followed by the Abraham Accords, and now increasing sanctions, America continues to undermine Iranian hegemony in the Middle East. 

These escalations are inclined to elicit a two-pronged response from Iran, one targeting the U.S. and the other targeting countries like the UAE and Bahrain which dare to disobey the Islamic Republic’s autocratic dominion. Iranian insiders worry that exercising restraint could make their country look weak among allies in the region who have helped to expand Iran’s reach in the past 20 years. Consequently, Iran’s proxies may express disapproval of the Israel-UAE accord by staging low-level incidents such as “small-scale explosions, bomb, drone or missile attacks in the region.” A strong military response from Iran is unlikely as the UAE provides a vital trade channel for Tehran. With regard to their U.S. directed retaliation, an armed response is probable. When the U.S. killed Soleimani in Iraq on January 3rd, Iran reacted by launching more than a dozen missiles at a camp in Iraq housing U.S. troops and is still plotting to kill an American ambassador to South Africa. Evidently, their retaliation can be quite delayed and is inclined to target U.S. influence in the Middle East, rather than strike American soil. Tehran may reinforce their links to regional militia groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen who have remained hostile to the U.S. Their counterattack will likely come in this form because these proxies often serve as Iran’s first line of defense and, in this case, offense. 

The signing of the Abraham Accords marks a historic shift in the power dynamics of the Middle East. While Iran and its proxies are determined to preserve their hegemony by dwelling in the past, the UAE and Bahrain are embracing a different future for the region by normalizing relations with Israel. The optimistic outlook of this deal, as expressed by Omani leadership, is that it is a landmark step to achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. Given the region’s dismal track record, however, pessimism tends to be a more fruitful predictor of politics. Thus, sustained resistance through incursions from Tehran and risen U.S.-Iran tensions may hamper the peaceful outcomes of the Israel-UAE diplomatic deal.