The California Exodus' Role in America's Political Divide

Sipa USA via Reuters Connect/POOL

Just in the past year, over 653,000 people left California for more red or “purple” states, popular ones including Texas, Idaho and Nevada. This is a direct contrast from the mere 480,204 people coming into the state. While California’s soaring housing prices, state's high income, and state taxes are major reasons for moving away, hundreds of dissatisfied Californians are leaving the state in search of places with more right-wing policies. This trend falls in line with the lack of bipartisanship across the nation fueled primarily by former President Trump’s presidency.

This pattern of emigration in California is not exclusive to the Golden State. Democratic states, located on the East and West Coast, are wealthier compared to their Republican counterparts. This is largely due to the booming technology and business industries along the coasts, such as California’s Silicon Valley and New York’s Wall Street. Given this, it is no surprise that California’s ideal location on the coast would add to the overall cost of living. 

However, a bigger reason is resulting in families -- primarily across central and northern California -- evacuating this historically blue state. A poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed 40 percent of Republicans and conservatives seriously considered moving out of state, compared to 14 percent of Democrats and liberals. Another poll conducted by the same Institute showed that 46 percent of people stated that the “state’s political culture” was the reason they wanted to leave the state. Combined with the current pandemic and increasing racial divide, more people than ever are dissatisfied with California's strong left-wing policies. Before the pandemic, Governor Gavin Newsom garnered approval from 68 percent of Democrats and 17 percent of Republicans. Today, Newsom’s approval ratings increased to up to 80 percent among Democrats and continued to remain extremely low among Republicans, at around a 15 percent approval today. 

More than ever, governors’ actions are crucial to a state's political culture as a result of the continuing pandemic. States across the nation were at liberty to implement their own public health measures. This resulted in majority democratic states taking safe and early precautions, whereas some decided to enforce public health measures loseley, and open up non-essential businesses quicker. Whereas Newsom followed the advice of public health officials and implemented strict lockdown measures taken early during the pandemic, Texas governor Greg Abbott removed the mask mandate on March 10th, despite warnings from public health officials. Abbott’s actions directly correlate with the Republican views of the majority Texas residents and the Democratic views of most Californians. Furthermore, the Black Lives Moment has also faced pushback from Republicans across the state as well. These factors combined with the looming presidential election ultimately led to families moving to states with political ideologies they most identify with. 

This leaves a bigger question on hand: where are they going? Primarily Texas, while Arizona and Idaho follow close behind. Data from Zillow shows that around a total five percent of Austin’s "outside" page views come from California. Similar statistics apply to other major Texas cities as well, including Dallas and Houston. Facebook groups, such as “Move to Texas from California!” and “Leaving California for Texas” have almost 28,000 members combined, encouraging people to leave for better life. 

Surprisingly, these numbers do not translate into a warm welcome from Texas. Texas’s strong right-wing agenda leads many of its residents to oppose Californian-turned-Texans. Texas Governor Greg Abbott spurred irrational fears when he launched a petition called “Don't California my Texas”, a polarizing statement made in response to the people's fear that Californians will bring their socialist agenda to Texas politics. Across Texas newspapers, warnings against the “California-ing” of Texas were voiced as well. The idea of people with different beliefs are entering their community is met with hostility and fear. This is a clear indication that the governor, as well as much of Texas, believes that political ideologies cannot be changed, and are concrete in a person's belief system. This belief coupled with the fact that people of similar political beliefs are flocking together, further creates a gap within society. A similar sentiment is seen in Arizona and Idaho as well. 

Contrary to popular belief, this does not mean that Texas will turn “more red” or “purple” due to its influx of Californians, but rather, it shows that people are surrounding themselves by people with the same political alignment as them. Even in Texas, the counties with the highest rates of domestic migration showed a rise in Democratic votes. The majority of the people moved from northern Texas, which is primarily Republican, demonstrating a trend of abandoning primarily right winged areas in search of more left winged ones. Behind this trend, there is a rooted sense of positive reinforcement. California has been consistently blue for decades, with no sign of slowing down. Voter registration statistics in California indicate that the number of registered Democratic voters from the 2016 election increased from 45.1 percent to 46.3 percent. However, the number of registered Republican voters decreased from 27.1 percent to 24 percent.  People are more likely to vote if they are able to see their voices represented. This will only result in regions across the country leaning strictly towards one side or another. There will continue to be a decline in bipartisan across the nation that took off around the 2016 presidential election. 

Since 2016, there has been a gradual decrease in bipartisanship across the nation. This can be attributed primarily to former President Donald Trump. With constant groundless promises and offensive claims, he caused the most divide America has seen in years. At the start of his presidency, his approval rating was 69 percent in Republicans and 7 percent in Democrats. As the election grew close, he continued to belittle the pandemic, and never denounced white supremacy, despite the spiking number of COVID-19 deaths and the Black Lives Matter movement, respectfully. The global pandemic and increasing racial inequality  contributed to Trump’s approval rating becoming the most polarized since Eisenhower was president in 1961. In 2020, Trump had a 87 percent approval rate among Republicans and a mere 6 percent among Democrats. Along with this approval disparity, the fact that the majority of the population is moving to Texas after living in California for years, is a result of people feeling unheard and underrepresented. Liberals and conservatives across the nation are clustering together within their own communities, and suspending even the idea of working together in politics.

What does this trend of polarization mean for the future? Given the current political climate, America will continue to become more divided than ever. Donald Green, a Yale political scientist describes this behavior as “Picking a Party, Choosing a Life”. Green writes that once people decide to identify as a Democrat or Republican, they stick with that identification for the rest of their lives. With political ideologies on the extreme sides of the spectrum, refusing to surround oneself with differing ideals will result in the formation of more extreme ideologies, rather than mature political discussions and dialogue. This phenomenon is exacerbating the existing political divide in America, ceasing productive political conversation once and for all.