Netanyahu for Israeli President: The Key to a Strong Right-Wing Government
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in front of an Israeli flag (Kobi Gideon/GPO)
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On March 23rd, Israeli citizens voted in the fourth legislative election Israel has held in the past two years. Each of these elections has been an inconclusive referendum on current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under indictment on three corruption related charges and seems to care more about personal power than the good of Israel. One solution to solve Israel’s impasse, which at the present moment seems most likely to result in a fifth election, is to offer Netanyahu the Israeli presidency, a position that is largely symbolic but offers immunity from prosecution. Such an offer would enable the formation of a coalition government, as right-wing parties that dislike Netanyahu would join with pro-Netanyahu parties, which are also right-wing. The key remaining question is which politician would replace Netanyahu as prime minister, and what policies such a government would implement.
Thirteen parties entered the Knesset, Israel’s legislature, following the March 23rd election. Eleven of the parties are split into two blocks. One block is led by Likud, the biggest party in Israel; representing the Israeli center-right, it holds 30 of the 120 Knesset seats. It is allied with two ultraorthodox religious parties, United Torah Judaism (7 seats) and Shas (9 seats), who combine for 16 seats, Yamina (7 seats), who represent the solid right, as well as the Religious Zionist party (6 seats). Religious Zionism hosts a mishmash of extremists, including Jewish supremacists and lawmakers who want to create a theocratic state. The block combines for 52 seats. The second block is led by center-left Yesh Atid (17 seats) and is aligned with right-wing parties Yisrael Beiteinu (7 seats) and New Hope (6 seats), left-wing parties Meretz (6 seats) and Labor (7 seats), and centrist party Blue and White (8 seats), combining for 51 seats. Ra’am (4 seats), a radical Islamist party associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, has not decided who it will support, or if they will support either block. The Arab Joint List (6 seats), which has a history of Knesset members mingling with and aiding terrorists, is blacklisted by the right-wing and centrist parties, and therefore cannot be part of any government; Ra’am has been exempted from this blacklisting by some parties, but not the right-wing.
Because neither the pro-Netanyahu nor the anti-Netanyahu block has 61 or more seats (which would constitute a majority), neither block can form a government. It is true that if Ra’am were to support the pro-Netanyahu block, a government becomes possible. However, the block has prevented this by refusing to sit with Ra’am. While the prospect of a Yesh Atid-led government was possible up until mid-May, but Yamina decided it was unacceptable because such a government would need to include Ra’am, and Yamina’s willingness to sit with Ra’am dissolved after Hamas began to attack Israel and riots broke out in Arab-Israeli towns, throwing Prime Minister Netanyahu a lifeline.
If no government can be formed, a fifth election will ensue. The prospect of a fifth election is troubling for Israel because it leaves Israel with a temporary weak government during a time of crisis, and forces Israeli citizens already weary of elections, as indicated by declining election turnout, to vote in another contentious election, further dividing the country in an era of many challenges.
A rather simple solution exists: Retire Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of the premiership and into the presidency. New Hope is ideologically aligned with Likud; its members just have a personal distaste for the premier, and like many in Israel, they do not believe it is acceptable for a prime minister to be in office while under indictment for corruption related charges, and are disturbed by what they see as Netanyahu’s policy choices being influenced by his indictments. Removing the premier eliminates the only reason New Hope is not already allied with Likud, and after New Hope joins Likud, a fully right-wing government becomes a reality.
Netanyahu has so far expressed that he does not want to give up the premiership for the presidency, but that could change. If he fails to form a government, attaining the presidency could help him with his legal issues, as the president of Israel is immune from prosecution. It is unclear if that immunity stretches to crimes for which a president is already on trial, but the Knesset can promise to pass legislation making it so. If Netanyahu agrees to give up the premiership and allow the Knesset (which selects the Israeli president for a single 7-year term) to instead choose him as president, he would easily win, as there is already enough support in the Knesset for it.
Only one question would remain: Who would assume the premiership in Netanyahu’s stead?
Gideon Sa’ar, leader of the New Hope party—a splinter party of former Likud members opposed to Netanyahu—was the candidate who was viewed by voters as competing directly with Netanyahu for the premiership at the beginning of the election. However, after initially strong polling showing New Hope with a similar number of seats to Likud, New Hope acquired a mere 6 seats, making it unlikely Sa’ar can assume the premiership after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s departure. Nor did Sa’ar do much better in head-to-head polling, where Prime Minister Netanyahu was found to be a three times more popular choice for prime minister.
The likely answer then is someone from Likud, as it is the largest party. A leading contender from Likud would be Israel Katz, a longtime member of the party’s right wing, who has served as an officer in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in its special operations forces and a number of cabinet positions.
Yamina head Naftali Bennett is another possibility. In order to become premier, however, he would need to dissolve Yamina into Likud; he and his second-in-command Ayelet Shaked are rumored to have desired this for some time, and only been thwarted by Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife Sarh Netanyahu’s distaste for both Shaked and Bennett. Bennett is a former officer in the IDF special operations forces and a multi-millionaire tech entrepreneur, he has served as defense minister, and he was one of the first politicians to support the settlement movement. Prior to the election, he polled as the fourth most popular candidate for prime minister—but that number is likely to have grown since, as talks about him becoming prime minister have grown more real.
Regardless of who becomes prime minister out of the right-wing block, the policy such a government would produce on defense issues is largely the same.
The right-wing block views the West Bank as Israeli territory and is in favor of building settlements there, which it would subsidize and support. In its members' view, the West Bank is actually called Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley— Israel has a right to it. The block contends historical claims to sovereignty. For example, many of the supposed settlements being built are on the locations of razed Jewish cities of old—some of which, like Hebron, were razed by Arab militias following the League of Nations’ Mandate for Palestine; as well as legal claims through the Mandate for Palestine, a resolution passed under the League of Nations, the predecessor to the United Nations, which included Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley in a Jewish Homeland. As a refutation of claims of “occupation” the Israeli right can point to the Merriam Webster definition of “occupied,” which is “the act or process of taking possession of a place or area,” and point out that there has never been a Palestinian state. Logically, it follows that it is not possible for Israel to be an occupying force in Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley: there is no state to occupy. Building and expanding cities in Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley is an imperative defense issue.For these reasons, a government formed by the Israeli right is almost certainly going to encourage and support such efforts to continue construction.
A second major defense issue Israel has is that of the Iranian nuclear program. Despite claiming it does not have a nuclear weapons program, secret archives stolen and revealed by Israel point to the contrary—as does common sense when looking at factors like the degree of enrichment Iran is pursuing. Over the years, Israel has disrupted the program through a number of covert sabotage operations, cyber-attacks, and targeted killings. Such actions would likely continue under a post-Netanyahu government, as would opposition to sanctions relief on Tehran by the United States and European countries. The key difference in government policy is more in the unity of the government in emergency contingency situations, such as Iran being within days or weeks of obtaining a nuclear weapon. At such a time, Israel needs a stable government that is able to act quickly and forcefully, with minimal internal opposition. Anything other than a right-wing government threatens this ability to act, and so for Israeli security against the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon, a strong and stable right-wing government is needed.
Beyond defense, the largest issue Israel faces is its economy, and unlike defense policy, the right is not united on economic policy. Only one party forcefully campaigned on reducing high taxation and regulation. That reformer party is Yamina. Yamina favors market reforms, including tax cuts, deregulation, and freezing the budget. Its leader Naftali Bennett, and second-in-command Ayelet Shaked both worked in the tech industry and feel very strongly about reforming the economy. It is true that Israel is facing workforce participation rate and unemployment issues and a growth rate likely lower than what is possible, and so it is a logical view that the status quo makes little sense. With Yamina providing an antidote to the status quo, if one agrees that the Israeli economy is the first or second most important issue in Israel, Bennett might seem to be the best candidate for prime minister, and Ayelet Shaked the best candidate for Minister of Economy.
In order for Ayelet Shaked, or anyone else who may become minister of economy, to implement neoliberal economic reforms, or for a minister of defense to implement muscular defense policies, it is a prerequisite that Netanyahu be moved out of his position as premier. After attaining the presidency, ideologically aligned parties that oppose Netanyahu personally would likely join his successor’s Likud party in a coalition government, giving Israel a stable government for the first time in over two years. That stability would contribute to Israeli strength and security, and would allow for a government capable of dealing with Israel’s precarious security situation and renewing its economy. This is good not only for Israel, but also for the United States. A safe and strong Israel is a valuable partner in a region plagued with instability, disregard for life, disregard for liberty, and anti-Americanism. The irony, if such a government was to form, would be that Bibi’s dream was to lead a strong right-wing government, and his departure would enable it to occur.