Ethiopia Descends into Crisis

(AFP)

On November 4, 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military offensive against the regional forces of Tigray, a region of Ethiopia. Its leadership and forces once ruled Ethiopia before retreating back to their stronghold of Tigray after Ahmed took power. Ahmed stated that this was a response to an attack on a military base housing government troops in Tigray. This attack marked the escalation of the political tensions between Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). 

To understand how this conflict escalated, we need to go back in time. The TPLF led the overthrow of a military dictatorship in 1991 and became the leader of a four-party coalition, called the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which began ruling Ethiopia. However, dissatisfaction spread due to political repression and exclusion. Questions about human rights and the level of democracy were raised by the public: people began to protest against the TPLF’s disproportionately dominant economic and political power in the 4-party coalition that ruled the country. The state responded with brutal force, killing many protestors along with other human right abuses. This just made people even more committed to continue protesting. Furthermore, there was also intra-coalition fighting between the Tigray and Amhara regions’ leaders on which direction to lead the country; all of this together led to protests which in turn caused the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. Ahmed, who was already a part of the Parliament, was chosen as the new prime minister. When Ahmed took office, he implemented reforms that weakened the power of the TPLF, essentially sidelining them. This angered the TPLF, who had ruled over the country for decades. 

As prime minister, Ahmed created a new party called the Prosperity Party, which the TPLF refused to join, and eliminated the EPRDF. He then set about arresting many Tigrayans for corruption and other crimes, and also removed some of them from political power. This led the TPLF to believe Ahmed was trying to deconstruct the Ethiopian federal system and centralize power. As an act of defiance, in September 2020 the TPLF held its own regional election despite the federal government postponing the general election due to the pandemic, which was considered illegal by the federal government. The central government responded by cutting funds for and ties with Tigray, which enraged the Tigray administration, who considered this an act of war. The tensions kept increasing until November 4, when Tigray forces seized the federal army base to steal weapons, prompting Ahmed to initiate a military confrontation. 

This conflict has worsened the existing dire humanitarian situation in Tigray. There were already 100,000 Eritrean refugees residing in Tigray, leading to issues of hunger and food insecurity for the people living in Tigray. The Ethiopian government has dramatically worsened this situation by cutting off aid, closing airports, blocking roads, stopping blockchain phone service, and instituting an internet blackout. To complement the government’s actions, a locust outbreak damaged 200,000 hectares of cropland, furthering the food insecurity. Moreover, the UN has stated that more than nine million people have the potential to be displaced as a result of this crisis. The UN has officially declared famine in the region and thousands of people are starving. Already, more than two million have fled their homes since November 4, with tens of thousands taking refuge in Sudan. There have been reports of food shortage in Sudanese refugee camps as more refugees keep arriving. There has also been a disruption in children’s education, as 7,000 schools have been damaged due to the war, and school has been out of session since March 2020 due to the pandemic and the civil war. Though many humanitarian organizations have provided aid, the international community needs to provide more, as it is not enough and is desperately needed. The international community should also provide education for the children, as it is unknown how long this conflict will last.

 With this civil war now over a year old, Ahmed recently declared a six-month state of emergency starting November 2 due to the escalating conflict and advised citizens to take up arms to potentially defend themselves against the TPLF. This crisis has most directly impacted the citizens of Tigray as well as the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. To make matters worse, there have been various reports of human right violations being committed. The UN and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission released a report stating that there are ongoing human rights abuses being committed by both parties, including “torture, sexual violence, ethnic discrimination, and killing civilians.” These attacks on civilians have been in violation of humanitarian and refugee law and international human rights, with some acts considered war crimes and crimes against humanity. Women and girls are the most vulnerable population in this conflict, as they have been significantly impacted by sexual violence, especially gang rape, and forms of torture by soliders of both parties. Another event that is included in the report is the execution of more than 200 ethnic Amharan civilians by Tigrayan youth group Samri, where in response, ethnic Amharas carried out revenge killings against ethnic Tigrayans. Moreover, there has been looting and destruction of property, as well as enforced disappearances and arbitrary detention and abductions by all parties of the conflict. The sexual- and gender-based violence has led to many unwanted pregnancies, widespread transfer of STDs, and people commiting suicide. The international community needs to take stronger action against both parties: this conflict could soon turn into a genocide due to the countless human right violations taking place. The international community should try those involved in the killings and violence in special tribunals for war crimes, such as the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugolsavia that was created to try Serbian officials for war crimes during the Yugoslvia wars. Furthermore, to prevent further atrocities, UN peacekeepers should intervene and attempt to stop the conflict.

In response to this crisis, the U.S. and the EU have called upon a ceasefire and peace talks, but their call has been ignored by Ethiopia. The UN Security Council has been unable to release a joint statement due to Russia and China deeming the Ethiopian civil war as internal conflict. The U.S. has recently employed a sanction regime against Ethiopia, has engaged in admirable diplomatic efforts, and has ended Ethiopia's special trade status under U.S. law in hopes to encourage Ethiopia to end the violence and start peace negotiations. Moreover, there has also been a declaration prepared by the State Department stating the atrocities being committed amount to genocide, but it is unsure when the Biden administration will sign it and make it official. More needs to be done by the international community as a whole to push for an escalation of conflict and an end to human rights abuses in Ethiopia.