Crossroads of a Nation: Election Violence in Mozambique
Photo credit: Adina Sualehe/VOA Português
Violence and uncertainty have gripped the young Republic of Mozambique in recent months; thousands have been detained and over 100 killed after widespread protests broke out in response to the country’s most recent national elections. Numerous accusations of election fraud and interference have been made after Mozambique’s incumbent party, Frelimo, once again claimed victory.
The bloc has dubiously ruled the young republic for the entirety of its lifespan, a fact which has led to increasing frictions between Frelimo and opposition parties in recent years. Of course, this recent outburst of civil strife is not a sudden development. Rather, the roots of this conflict can be traced back many decades to the nation’s fight for independence during the Cold War.
Initially established as a nationalist, anti-colonial organization with the aims of fighting Portuguese rule in 1962, the Mozambique Liberation Front (abbreviated to Frelimo) eventually adopted a Marxist-Leninist ideology after Mozambique gained its independence in 1975. A semi-presidential system was also put into place, with the first national elections being held in 1977; at the time, Frelimo was the only party legally allowed in the republic.
Earlier that year, civil war broke out between the new government and the newly formed reactionary group called the Mozambique National Resistance, or Renamo. Lasting fifteen years, the conflict led to the deaths of over 1 million through violence, war crimes, and famine. By 1990, the situation had stalemated, Frelimo transitioned from Marxism to democratic-socialism, and negotiations led to change throughout the political landscape of Mozambique. A new constitution was adopted the same year, allowing for a multi-party system and guaranteed democratic rights. Two years later, the Rome General Peace Accords were signed, officially bringing an end to the Mozambican Civil War.
Despite a peaceful resolution to the brutal conflict fought between Frelimo and Renamo, a new constitution was unable to prevent grudges between the two parties; Frelimo has remained overwhelmingly dominant in the political arena of the republic. They have maintained control of the parliament and presidency, winning every single election since the end of the civil war. Naturally, irritation arose among the National Resistance, which culminated in a second insurgency in 2013. While a more inclusive political system was the main goal of the rebellion, increasing economic inequality was also cited as a reason. Ultimately, a peace deal was signed in 2019 and hostilities largely ceased.
This is all to say that the political history of Mozambique has been one marred by violence and conflict. Frelimo and Renamo have remained at odds for almost five decades and the most recent elections, held in October, were no exception. Allegations of election fraud have been made in the past by Renamo and other opposition groups, and their voices have only gotten louder as the years have progressed. So when the results for the 2024 election were announced, the country once again became a political battleground.
Numerous accusations of election interference were made by recently formed Frelimo splinter party Podemos, Renamo, and other domestic groups, which have been supported by the European Union and the U.S. Embassy in Mozambique. Venâncio Mondlane, the presidential candidate for Podemos, also openly disputed the results and called for widespread protests.
Tensions were heightened when, on October 18, Mondlane’s lawyer Levino Dias was murdered alongside Paulo Guambe, a Podemos parliamentary candidate, by unknown gunmen. At the time, Dias was preparing to legally challenge the election results. Reactions were swift; Mozambicans took to the streets across the country to protest on October 21, and have continued to do so since. The government has responded violently, with at least 100 and upwards of 300 deaths being reported since then. Despite this crackdown, protests have continued, even after the new president, Daniel Chapo, took office in January.
While he has promised a dedication to unity and human rights, whether or not he can deliver on those promises remains to be seen.
While the autocratic tendencies of Frelimo have driven many to oppose their rule, other grievances have also fueled discontent in the republic. Mozambique is one of the poorest nations on Earth, and rising inequality has done little to alleviate the problem. In a country with an average wage of only $400 a year and 30-50 percent youth unemployment, substantial work is needed to uplift the least fortunate. But for many, not enough is being done; one of the cited reasons for the renewed Renamo insurgency in 2013 was that a bonanza of banana and coal brought the country new wealth, which Renamo accused the government of hoarding.
Tensions between Renamo and Frelimo aren’t the only political difficulties the country faces; the Islamic State has been waging an insurgency of their own in northern Mozambique since 2017, which has led to the displacement of upwards of 800,000 civilians. Despite terrorism, kidnappings, and mass beheadings, ISIS-Mozambique continues to draw new supporters for their jihad due to the poor economic conditions many have been forced to endure for years. Initially employing private military companies such as the Wagner Group, the Frelimo regime made little progress in uprooting the insurrection until international forces intervened in 2021. While the situation was alleviated for the next few years, 2024 has seen a resurgence of the Islamic State due to ineffective governance over reclaimed areas.
It seems as though the world is falling apart around Frelimo’s head. A violent conflict to the north and an increasingly wary and fired-up population everywhere else have left the future of the republic uncertain. However, there remains potential for positive change, both economically and politically. While the economy has been mostly stagnant in recent years, it’s expected to grow by around 4 percent per year from 2024 to 2026. This is the result of an increase in extracted liquified natural gas and success in the service sector. Inflation has also dropped substantially, from 10.3 percent in 2022 to 3.6 percent in the first half of last year. While Mozambique sits among the poorest nations by GDP per capita, the wealth and resources for increased prosperity exist.
Ultimately, the power rests in the hands of Frelimo to decide the fate of their nation. It’s not too late for them to use their political power to pass reforms to ensure not only reduced wealth inequality, but also more democratic processes. 1990 saw the negotiation and passage of a new, more democratic constitution, a huge step in the right direction for the republic. Ideally, the coming years could see similar political overtures, and hopefully they can learn from the upheaval surrounding the most recent election to mold a better future for their people.
One thing is certain, though: Mozambique needs change. People can only be pushed so far before they have had enough, and it seems that the young republic is reaching its breaking point.