A Partisan Ploy: The Campaign to Recall Governor Newsom

Image: ABC News

California’s voters are likely headed to the polls this fall to vote on whether to recall Governor Gavin Newsom and who will replace him if a majority of voters choose to remove him from office. While petition signers can withdraw their names,  the recall is expected to happen as the California Secretary of State has certified 1.6 million signatures on the petition,  well above the roughly 1.4 million signatures, or 12 percent of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election, required for the recall election to take place. Given that the recall election is expected, both sides have begun to make their case as to why Newsom should or should not be removed. Newsom and his allies have cast the recall as a blatant partisan power grab by California Republicans, while the recall’s proponents claim their campaign is simply a reaction against Newsom’s failures as governor amid the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis. While some voters may have legitimate criticisms of the Newsom administration, the origins and conduct of the recall campaign thus far indicate that the effort is more a partisan ploy than a legitimate use of recall power. 

The partisan origins of this recall attempt are undeniable. For example, prior to this current attempt, Newsom’s opponents already have tried to remove him from office 5 other times since Newsom took office in 2019. While Newsom’s supposed failures in responding to the pandemic are the reason cited by supporters, clearly some backers opposed Gov. Newsom prior to the pandemic, from the day he took office. In addition, the involvement of Republican political figures such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrinch further support Newsom’s characterization of the recall attempt as a political ploy. Furthermore, rather than offering substantive critiques of the Newsom administration, the recall campaign has instead gravitated toward banking on anger over Newsom’s attendance at an indoor dinner party at the French Laundry last November, at a time when Newsom was discouraging Californians from gathering indoors for any reason with members outside of their household. The scandal was further exacerbated when it was revealed the dinner party was for a donor and lobbyist. The recall campaign is banking so much on the scandal that three of its leaders have launched a pro-recall radio show called “Friday Night at the French Laundry.” While certainly an embarrassing and hypocritical moment for Newsom, one lapse of judgement hardly rises to the level of recalling the governor, especially a governor who has largely followed the guidance of the CDC and other public health authorities in deciding how and when to allow businesses to reopen for in-person operations in order to keep Californians safe. 

While the recall has partisan origins, its campaign has capitalized on frustrations over the pandemic. In particular, the continued closure of California’s public schools has already risen as a flashpoint in the recall election. For example, one Republican candidate in the recall election, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, has centered his campaign around the continued closure of California’s schools as evidence of Newsom's failures as governor. The political pressure to reopen schools is clearly weighing on Newsom, as he recently struck a deal with state legislators to provide financial support to schools that do reopen for in-person instruction. While laying the blame on Newsom for continued school closures may resonate with voters, Newsom does not have total control over the situation because ultimately the decision to reopen or not lies not with Newsom or his administration but rather with the school districts. 

Progressives such as Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ro Khanna, have fervently backed the more moderate Newsom in opposing the recall, which suggests that Newsom is taking the petition seriously and working to unify and mobilize Democrats against this attempt to remove him from office.

According to a March Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll of 1706 California residents, 79 percent of whom are registered Democrats, are opposed to the recall.  However, it remains to be seen whether Newsom can rally Californians to oppose this blatantly partisan power grab by California’s Republicans. In a state where independents outnumber registered Republicans and where Republicans have not won statewide office since 2006, this recall election looks more like an act of desperation than a sincere exercise of direct democracy. Regardless, California Republicans have a steep hill to climb as 56 percent of likely voters, including 53 percent of independents, are opposed to the recall, according to a PPIC poll. 

Newsom’s success or failure in the recall election will certainly have significant consequences for California’s future, as voters will decide whether to affirm or reject the Democratic leadership of the state. The recall campaign conducted so far suggests that once the actual campaign truly gets underway, California is headed for even more polarization as the race becomes the next nationalized battle between progressives and conservatives. This battle will determine whether California continues on its progressive path or makes a hard right turn into conservatism.