Stability has long been the backbone of German politics. Following the collapse of Nazism, West German governments eschewed radicalism in favor of Christian centrism, and that centrist tradition has continued since German unification. Proof of that stability is Chancellor Angela Merkel, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who has been in office since 2005. Under her leadership, Germany’s prominence upon the world stage has gradually increased. Long one of the dominant players within European geopolitics and the European Union, Germany is also currently a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. These platforms have given Merkel an opportunity to extol her brand of technocratic, competent liberal democracy throughout the world, pushing Germany into the role traditionally held by the United Kingdom and the United States as the most prominent exponent of Western democratic ideals.

Merkel’s retirement prior to the elections in the autumn of 2021 for the German Bundestag, or Parliament, will throw this stability into flux. A successor has not yet been chosen from within the CDU and the reelection of the conservatives does not look assured. Uncertainty relating to the future of the CDU will allow the Green Party to play a prominent role in this transition. Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the Green Party had been riding high, polling over 20% nationally and trailing only the CDU and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). These polling numbers have since dropped slightly, as Merkel’s competent and fact-based handling of the pandemic has increased support for the ruling coalition. Despite this, the Greens have remained comfortably in second place as the election year approaches.

The surge of Germany’s Green Party, colloquially known as the Greens, runs contrary to political developments throughout the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. While right-wing, nationalist governments gain power in the East, the surge of the Green Party indicates a shift in the German electorate leftward. In Poland, the Law and Justice Party (PiS) has attacked liberal democracy and installed highly partisan justices onto the supreme court, butting heads with the EU on a wide-range of cultural and social policies. In a rare instance of PiS backing down in the face of public opinion, they recently had to pause the implementation of a near total abortion ban in the face of furious, youth-driven public protest, while other policy priorities, such as their refusal to accept refugees during the European migrant crisis, have conflicted with the EU’s principles of multiculturalism and civic openness. The same is true in Hungary, where the ruling party Fidesz, under the leadership of Prime Minister Victor Orban, has also been subject to strong EU censure. Hungary has been on the frontlines of opposition to liberal EU policies regarding immigration, and Orban has declared a mission to “protect Christian culture in Europe.” Germany has faced a similar nationalist insurrection in the guise of Alternative for Germany (AfD), a xenopobic, anti-European party that has gained influence, especially throughout the former East Germany. The refusal of Germany’s mainstream parties to work with them, however, has limited their practical impact in government.

The Green Party’s rise represents a refusal by the German polity, especially young Germans, to support racism and anti-democratic forces. It is also a prominent example of a global movement quickly picking up steam and threatening many global elites: youth-driven climate politics. Greta Thunberg’s activism and the Fridays for Future movement, where high school and college students skip class to demonstrate in favor of combating climate change, has helped push climate justice to the top of the European political agenda. As a result of their activism, as well as shifting political tides, the EU has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050. The Greens, the youngest major party in Germany, have built on that momentum. They have also bolstered their economic policies, advocating for a higher minimum wage and for increased government spending on infrastructure and education. This has moved them from a single-issue group and increased their viability as a governing partner in the Bundestag. While the stalwarts of the German center-left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), have wilted as the junior partner in Merkel’s ruling coalition, the Greens have been unencumbered by association with the CDU/CSU. Time will tell, but the Greens seem poised to become Germany’s dominant left-of-center party.

Still, a year remains until the next elections to the Bundestag. The Greens have not relinquished their second place in the polls in two years, and it looks increasingly likely that they will enter the government next year. Their only previous experience in the ruling coalition was in partnership with the SPD, but a dramatic shift would be necessary to bring the Red-Green coalition into power. A more likely outcome is the Greens serving as junior partners to the Merkel-free CDU/CSU.

Compared to some conservative parties in the Western world, the CDU/CSU is relatively liberal. In 2017, Merkel paved the way for the legalization of gay marriage in Germany, despite personally voting against it, and oversaw the acceptance of over a million refugees during the Mediterranean refugee crisis. The CDU/CSU’s centrism potentially paves the way for an alliance between the Greens and the CDU/CSU, an arrangement that has been in effect in the state of Baden-Württemberg since 2016, with the Greens as the senior partner. This combination would undoubtedly further push climate justice up the German political agenda, where it already occupies a prominent role. However, an alliance with the CDU/CSU could alienate some members of the Green Party, similar to the backlash by Green Party members to their party’s support for the Iraq War. While such a stance is ideologically understandable, it would be politically shortsighted. If the Green Party is to fully emerge as a dominant player in German politics, governing experience is essential. They cannot only say what ought to be done, but they must put their principles into practice if they are going to truly make an impact on German governance.

The Green Party’s popularity has the potential to reorient German politics. Their emergence, taken with the diminution of the SPD, presents the possibility of a new paradigm in German politics, dominated by the CDU/CSU and Green Party, with the SPD losing their position as the standard bearers of the German left. This would be a positive outcome in German politics, because as our window to act upon climate change quickly becomes obsolete, environmental politics becomes increasingly urgent. Young voters, tired of the political stasis that has long prevailed, and turned off by the at-times neo-Nazism spouted by the AfD, have found a voice with the Greens. While the coronavirus pandemic has temporarily stalled the resurgent German environmental movement, the elections of next year provide an opportunity to kickstart it once again.