After staggering economic decline, increasing political instability, a massive blast at the port of Beirut that claimed over 200 Lebanese lives, and the displacement of nearly 300,000 others, the Lebanese state seems to be on the verge of total collapse. While the political elite and powerful political parties fight to maintain their grip on power as well as the status quo, ongoing protests and continued youth mobilization work to fight against the country’s dire situation. 

The future of Lebanon remains a mystery. There seems to be two most likely outcomes. Either the political system will completely collapse and political alternatives will emerge, or the corrupt status quo will continue to worsen the living conditions of the Lebanese people. Whether political change succeeds in overcoming a status quo remains to be seen. 

How did we get here?

Today’s instability has its roots in the Lebanese civil war.  Decades of sectarian strife between Shias, Sunnis, and the Maronite Christian majority boiled over into full-fledged conflict beginning in 1975 after an attempted Israeli occupation. Over the span of 15 years, militant fighting resulted in over 120,000 casualties before tensions started to mend with the 1989 Taif agreement which was formed by the Arab League and the Vatican. The agreement brought the first major ceasefire and prompted negotiations amongst the Lebanese factions which culminated in the disarmament of all militias with the exception of Hezbollah. 

In 1991, the Lebanese Parliament passed an amnesty law, pardoning all political crimes prior to its establishment and creating a consociational democracy. This form of government guaranteed representation in major political offices for each religious group in Lebanon, splitting the Lebanese Parliament equally between Muslims and Christians, guaranteeing a Maronite Christian President, a Sunni Prime Minister, and a Shia Speaker of parliament. Essentially every meaningful political position in Lebanon was reserved to one religious sect. While the new structure de-escalated tensions, political office was now determined by one’s sect and religion rather than capability and skill.

While the Lebanese population was still largely divided along religious lines, tides began to mend and the Lebanese economy began its slow revival. 

In 1992, Sunni business mogul Rafik Hariri was elected Prime Minister by Maronite President Elias Hrawi. Both political actors aimed to uplift Lebanon’s economically deprived and displaced population to create political stability after decades of chaos. Financial experts praised Hariri’s approach--renowned Lebanese Economist, Nichollas Chammas, even described him as a “bulldozer,” who successfully “put the Lebanese economy back on track,”. Much of the economic growth stemmed from Hariri’s massive reconstruction projects, many of which cost billions and revived Beirut's old industrial districts. Hariri’s projects, as well as his previous business connections in Saudi Arabia attracted Arab investment, resulting in massive rates of foreign direct investment mainly from his previous business connections in Saudi Arabia. In turn, Lebanon’s real national income increased by over 6% in one year. This growth led to lower poverty levels and a decrease in youth unemployment with a booming tourism sector, but a weaker Lebanese lira and increased national debt.

However, this period of peace and economic revival came to an abrupt halt in 2005. On February 14th, several tons of TNT detonated in a parked car, killing Prime Minister Rafik Hariri as well as 23 others. 

While the assassiation is still under investigation by Lebanon’s special tribunal, many point towards Hezbollah as the main culprits. The political climate built by Hariri barred  representation for the extremist group, likewise, several UN-backed tribunals issued arrest warrants to members of Hezbollah connected to the assasination.

In the wake of Prime Minister Hariri’s death, a wave of political violence, fueled primarily by Hezbollah, ensued. Since their founding in 1982 during the civil war, Hezbollah has pushed their radicalist agenda with force for years in Lebanon, eventually growing into Lebanon’s largest and strongest armed force. Their extremist doctrine that was directly funded and supported by the Iranian Government made Hezbollah extremely polarizing to the Lebanese public. After they were left without any political representation following their refusal to disarm militant forces and demand for veto power, the group declared war on the government and new western-backed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Hezbollah took control of West Beirut and many other majority-Shia cities across the country, primarily in the Lebanese South. While many criticized Hezbollah for their guerilla war tactics and polarizing platforms, many Lebanese Shias supported Hezbollah. Their supporters consider them as the only effective political actor for their success in saving thousands of Lebanese citizens from Israel’s transgressions, and the substantive medical and financial aid they provide for members. To stifle violence, another political agreement was signed in Qatar in 2008 amongst rival forces to form a new coalition government--which, once again, politically disenfranchised Hezbollah. 

However, peace and stability proved unsustainable. As sectarian violence continued in parts of Lebanon and youth unemployment ran rampant, the new government failed to stabilize the nation. Lebanon became the world’s third most indebted country in the world, with a 152% debt-to-GDP ratio. The country’s electricity infrastructure remained in shambles with most citizens relying on backup generators for several hours each day. Former General and President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, Rafik Al-Hariri’s son, proved extremely ineffective in promoting useful change and merely blamed other powerful factions for the instability. These conditions persisted for years.

A New Wave of Civil Unrest

 Civil unrest rose in a promising form in October of 2019 as a result of all the turmoil. After new austerity taxes were imposed amidst economic struggles, millions of Lebanese citizens took to the streets in downtown Beirut. Citizens expressed outrage over proposed austerity taxes given the existing economic strife and became increasingly frustrated by the inefficiency of all sects of the Lebanese government. 

Lebanese activist and master’s graduate from the University of San Diego, Rima Jamaleddine, explained how the October 17th protests gained traction so quickly. She explained that the revolution started mainly with young, politically independent students and workers unhappy with the status quo, but this disapproval of the political system resonated with all different factions of Lebanese society due to a myriad of reasons. Jamaleddine also asserted that people were “fed up with the economic crisis that had gone on for years, high unemployment, [and] large-scale corruption as the political elite would dine at five star restaurants as flocks of people would be eating from the trash right outside.” There was also unrest spurred by high levels of international meddling by various nations including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and France in Lebanese affairs. Likewise, the ineptitude of Lebanon’s political system had replaced meritocracy with nepotism and guaranteed political power for unworthy actors merely due to their religious or ethnic sect. Jamaleddine explored the fact that even in her experience, “there were even internship positions in government where I would be treated so kindly and respectfully by high ranking officials just for my religious sect, while I couldn’t even apply for other positions.” All these forms of corrupt government policy and inequality allowed millions to mobilize against a government that had promised its citizens everything, and gave them nothing.

In response to the mass protests, state-run media launched a smear campaign, slandering protesters and labelling their movement as illegitimate. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah also criticized the protests, claiming it would lead to chaos and potentially a new civil war.  Government criticism and inaction only backfired and inspired more protests in the nearby cities of Tripoli and Nabatieh.

Now, protesters demand the immediate dissolution of the government, along with the resignations of Prime Minister Saad Alhariri and President Michel Aoun. 

After weeks of constant unrest and increasing demands from the public across Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad Alhariri resigned on October 29th and the President announced that he will vote in a new Prime Minister and call for early parliamentary elections. 

Following a brief break in the political tension and a halt in protests, the Lebanese public once again took to the streets in early 2021, this time, in response to continued corruption and poor handling of the COVID-19 crisis that led Lebanon to default on its sovereign debt in March of 2020. 

Increasing levels of the population have grown disgusted with the political elite not only due to inefficiency and lack of accountability, but also growing corruption scandals like that of Central Bank governor Riad Salameh. Jamaleddine describes how the political elite sought to stifle resistance by using brute force on protesters with tear gas, live bullets, and arbitrarily detaining and intimidating Lebanese activists. 

As a result of Lebanon’s constant instability, many academically accomplished and successful Lebanese citizens fled the country amid its crisis. Coined the ‘brain drain,’ thousands of doctors, engineers, professors, and businessmen are leaving the country out of despair and a loss of hope. In December, The World Bank warned against Lebanon’s “dangerous depletion of resources, including human capital.” With droves of Lebanon’s highly skilled workforce leaving the country, prospects of recovery have become bleak; it is only more difficult to rebuild. The withdrawal of highly skilled workers only provides greater opportunity for corruption to fester. This leaves a larger gap for the corrupt political elite and Hezbollah to grow stronger and increase their influence. In fact, it appears Hezbollah is already preparing for the potential economic collapse in the country. Since the beginning of the October revolution, Hezbollah began issuing ration cards to help members buy basic goods as well as expand their military capacity across the country by force, doing so in order to store weapons, oil, medicine, and food for what they sense is an inevitable collapse.

Nevertheless, amongst the political chaos and continued aggression of police forces who routinely attacked and detained protesters, the Lebanese youth persisted in their resistance. Activists engage in social media outreach, political mobilization, and even harass political elites in person, in the media, and online, criticizing their ineptitude, corruption, and police brutality.

The Beirut Blast

The situation intensified in August of 2020 after several tons of ammonium nitrate exploded at the Beirut port, killing over 200 people and displacing hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens. 

“The country seemed to be in a traumatic shock for weeks,” Jamaleddine stated. “We would go through our daily routines normally, but at the end of each day for a month, we would always just stop and cry because over half our city had gone to ashes.”  Likewise, the government essentially left the people to fend for themselves. “We the people were the ones who went into the street and cleaned the rubble and helped the poor. We only survived through our resiliency and helping each other,” Jamaleddine added.

The blast also created a catastrophe for Lebanon’s already-struggling economy. Staggering poverty levels engulfed over half the population, and despite citizen’s demands, the President, finance minister, and militant group Hezbollah refused to give up power or compromise with the International Monetary Fund to ease the economic burden on the Lebanese population. 

In March of 2021, the Lebanese lira hit an all time low, losing over 80% of its original value and trading at over 10,000 Lira to the dollar. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate surpassed 40% and inflation skyrocketed, leaving millions of Lebanese in poverty and others without access to their money in the country’s central bank. 

The quality of life also deteriorated significantly for the 1.5 million Syrian refugees living in the country. The poverty level for Syrian refugee households in Lebanon spiked from 55% to a jarring 90% this last year. Instead of providing aid and support to the refugee population, the Lebanese government used them as scapegoats, claiming their presence threatens stability, causing violent uprisings by opposition Syrian groups.  

The future...

With such a desolate political and economic reality in Lebanon, many feel hopeless and see the future as extremely bleak and merely expect more of the same, from political corruption and inefficiency to continued sectarian strife and economic struggle. 

However, the beacon of hope for Lebanon that refuses to be sidelined continues to be the largely young, independent, alternative political parties and actors. Groups like independent progressive movements that emerged from the October 17th protests like Change Starts Here, Minteshreen, and Lihaqqi refuse to leave the country despite its ruinous state, but instead work tirelessly to mobilize citizens across Lebanon through various means. By attacking the political elite head on and engaging in frequent social media outreach, young activists continue to be a thorn in the side of Lebanon’s political actors and provide a voice for the struggling Lebanese people and present political alternatives for change in the country. 

To many, the persistent protests are not only a beacon of hope, but are seen as a symbolic political fibrillation of the Arab Spring that took place in neighboring countries eight years prior by young people who had grown fed up of living under dictatorships and a lack of political freedoms. 

These independent movements have already proved politically impactful and successful. In November of 2020, independent student bodies won landslide victories in massive University elections for student council and committees in several large universities, most notably the American University of Beirut, Lebanese American University, and Rafik Hariri University.  

University elections may seem politically irrelevant to outsiders, however, in Lebanon, University elections have massive political impact as involvement in University politics directly relates to policy changes and shifting public preferences. According to Siba Mroueh, Vice President of communications for Change Starts Here, the student elections are of the utmost importance because they are “a microcosm of the Lebanese society.” In fact, these elections are so influential that rival parties like Hezbollah and Saad Hariri’s Future party created coalitions to minimize the impact of the new youth independent parties. The coalition poured campaign resources and funding into these elections, but only saw marginal success. Despite the efforts of the political elite, Lebanon’s independent parties secured comfortable majorities across several Universities.  Many are hoping these results will be reflected in the Parliamentary elections in 2022. Since many of the students who voted in University elections will be eligible to vote in 2022, young independents are hopeful that there is still a chance to change Lebanese politics. 

With such a massive economic, social, and political crisis in the country, it can be easy to lose hope for a better future for Lebanon. Nevertheless, the Lebanese people have shown time and time again their resiliency and determination to usher in a brighter future for the new generation. Rima Jamaleddine continues, describing that “we Lebanese don’t live, we survive.” 

Lebanon’s hope remains in its youth and their ability to mobilize. Whether it be insisting to continue protesting after being shot, imprisoned, and even killed by the country’s political establishment, rebuilding the capital city piece by piece, or fighting for political power against far stronger, and deeply ingrained political actors and parties—the Lebanese youth have illustrated an undying dedication to generating positive change in their home country. Through the upcoming 2022 elections, this new generation could very well garner the political power needed to reverse the transgressions of their predecessors and put the country on a path to revival. When asked whether there is still hope for a better future for Lebanon, Rima Jamaleddine responded, “ask me after the 2022 elections.”