Devastating flare-ups between Israel and Palestine have become commonplace news that we seem to routinely observe in a seemingly never ending cycle. However, the tragic recent war between the Israeli government and Hamas, the fundamentalist militant group that has controlled Gaza since 2007, has already brought drastic new developments and may very well lead to the political and social changes necessary to promote a long term path for peace and a better life for the civilians involved.

Where did this all start?

In October 2020, an Israeli court ruled to evict over 13 Palestinian families that include over 300 individuals from their homes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of East Jerusalem and gave families until May 2021 to evacuate. These 13 are a part of a group of 28 families that were granted these homes as refugees by Jordan in 1948. As a result of the court order, Palestinians launched massive protests against these evictions mainly in Jerusalem and around the Al-Aqsa Mosque. After days of protests, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) clashed with protesters using tear gas and rubber bullets and raided the Al-Aqsa Mosque during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, physically removing civilians from the Mosque, injuring several and detaining hundreds. This move by the Israeli government became the matchstick that engulfed this domestic dispute into a full-on war which attracted staggering international interest. 

As a response to the IDF’s incursion into Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of Islam’s holiest sites during Ramadan, Hamas responded with tens of rockets into and north of Israel’s capital Tel Aviv for the first time in several years. In retaliation for these attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu launched an all-out aerial obliteration of Gaza, the main strip of land controlled by Hamas. The situation in Gaza went from bad to catastrophic with Israeli airstrikes lasting over 11 days, killing an estimated 256 Palestinians, 128 of whom were civilians including 68 children. Hamas exchanged hundreds of rockets as well, killing 12 Israeli civilians, two of which were children. 

The tragedy of this war was not just in the casualties, but also in the displacement of nearly 110,000 more Palestinians left with no source of income and no home to live in, as much of Gaza’s already ailing infrastructure, hospitals, and businesses were destroyed. The economy, already struggling with a 43% unemployment rate, collapsed further. With all this humanitarian devastation coming from a surprising and unexpected war, we must understand what made this war happen in the first place and whether it was preventable or not.

Why now? Why at all?

In this recent war between Hamas and Israel, even the most qualified officials on both sides wouldn’t argue that the bloodshed protected any citizens or saved any lives. So why did it start at all? As I interviewed a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service Officer and Professor of Political Science at the University of New Mexico Dr. Emile Nakhleh, he explained that “former Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu was under an immense amount of political pressure prior to attack[ing] Gaza. Large parties in the Israeli Knesset became closer than ever to forming a coalition in Parliament in order to remove Netenyahu and his Likud party from government. So he started the Gaza war in order to assure the Israeli people he was their protector.” With tension in Jerusalem growing from the developments in Sheikh Jarrah, Netenyahu hoped that a successful war in Gaza would regain him the Israeli public and lead to the destruction of the rising coalition, as done by several other Israeli Prime Ministers, Dr. Nakhleh claims. While rocket attacks on civilian metropolitan areas like Tel Aviv are indefensible, Hamas had warned Israel that any attack on protesters in the Al-Aqsa would not be tolerated and would be responded to by direct force, as Dr. Nakhleh stated. Likewise, with one of the most sophisticated and technologically advanced intelligence agencies in the world at Israel’s disposal in the Mossad, it is impossible that Israel’s Prime Minister did not know the significance of entering one of Islam’s most holy sites during Ramadan with tear gas and rubber bullets and arresting hundreds of people. Netenyahu’s government also detained several peaceful Palestinian activists and journalists like Givara Budeiri and targeted and destroyed the largest media building in Gaza, which housed both the Associated Press and Al Jazeera. All these strongman tactics confirm that Benjamin Netenyahu started this war to stay in power and worked to silence all outlets that tried to jeopardize his plan. 

Nevertheless, Netenyahu’s plan to get the Israeli public back on his side and stay in power not only cost countless lives and bloodshed, but the plan ultimately failed as none of his strategic assumptions turned true. Hamas’ successful attack, led an already weary Israeli public to be even more critical towards the former Prime Minister as metropolitan Israelis were forced to take shelter in underground basements and bunkers for the first time in decades. Clearly, Netenyahu was unable to keep his people safe and secure from the group he had been alienating for years. 

Shifting Opinion in the West

Another significant factor in the recent Israeli-Palestinian developments that Netenyahu failed to calculate the serious shift in public opinion in Western nations like the United States. Despite U.S. Secretary of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stating that the U.S. has unconditional ironclad support for Israel during the war in Gaza, the American public started to shake the foundation of America's constant and unconditional financial and political support for Israel. To start, there were several pro-Palestinian protests with tens of thousands of people across major Western cities around the world like San Francisco, London, Paris, and others across the month of May, protesting the ongoing war and American support for Israeli tactics against the Palestinians. This was also echoed with significant public conversation and awareness about the situation. The American public became interested in an international political conflict at a monumental level with conversations about the future of Israeli-Palestinian politics becoming nearly unavoidable while scrolling through American social media. 

Many attribute this as a continuation of protests and unrest in America following the Black Lives Matter protests that swept the country last summer after the murder of George Floyd; millions of Americans and Palestinians felt a connected sense of struggle against aggressive police encounters and the fight for improved civil rights. This level of public pressure has already made a significant political impact by leading to a vote in the U.S. Senate spearheaded by Senator Bernie Sanders to block a $735 million arms sale to Israel for the first time ever. While the arms sale ultimately went through, political moves like this signify the pressure put on President Biden from a massive section of the Democratic party to take a more aggressive stance towards Israel’s human rights violations, potentially making President Biden “the last fully pro-Israel Democratic President in American history” as expressed by renowned political commentator Thomas Freidman in an interview with CNBC. 

Previously, there had been a serious stigma in the U.S. against talking about Israel and its human rights and international law violations, specifically in important political and academic circles where public conversation is paramount in order to reach meaningful change. Even here in Davis, conversations about allowing the Associated Students of UC Davis to participate in boycotting Israeli products due to the country’s human rights violations were quickly labeled as anti-Semitic. In many other academic circles, merely having conversations about Israeli human rights violations were hidden behind the veil of anti-Semitism, causing a notable level of silence in American public opinion towards Israel. Many feared being ostracized for criticising the largest recipient of American foreign aid in the world. This sentiment of silence was specific to Israel as anyone who would openly criticize America's other allies like Saudi Arabia would never be called an Islamaphobe or bigot. The protests and recent political pressure has begun to shift this view in important circles as more Americans criticize Israel without constantly worrying about being labeled a bigot. The viral responses to the anti-Semitism defense given by human rights activists like Mohamed Al Kurd and Noura Erakat in the mainstream media showed many the baselessness of such arguments. With more public intrigue about what happens between Israel and Palestine, many will no longer accept superficial talking points that prevent important discussions.

Change from within 

The tide of change in recent developments has not only impacted the West, but has also impacted both Palestine and Israel heavily. The Palestinian resistance movement has expanded not only by gaining more sympathy, followers, and legitimacy, but has also crucially grown in an ideological form. After the murder of Nizar Banat, prominent Palestinian activist and human rights defender, at the hands of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank on June 24, 2021, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians protested across parts of Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza demanding the overthrowing of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah, Abbas’ political party that controls the West Bank and had been the face of Palestinian resistance for decades. Palestinians in staggering numbers have begun to realize that in order to truly reach a self-determined future, they must liberate themselves not only from the Israeli government, but also equally from the authoritarian and brutal hands of the leaders and political actors, including Fatah and Hamas, who have manipulated the Palestinian struggle into political gains that have kept both parties in power in their respective areas for years on end without elections. 

Breaking down the Authority

Palestinian activists and human rights defenders are taking Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA) head-on as many of their recent political decisions have led to a major decline in their approval ratings. Before killing Banat, the PA had already stirred up Palestinian public opinion significantly after delaying presidential elections in early May 2021. While the PA blamed Israel for Palestinian voting rights being oppressed in Jerusalem, many analysts claim there were several solutions brought to President Abbas to solve the issue, but he refused in order to prevent the elections that would have most likely led to his downfall, with only 14% supporting his reelection. Likewise, Palestinians have been craving democracy for years, with over 93% of its eligible population registered to vote, a percentage that beats out both Israel and the United States. Along with corruption accusations and Mahmoud Abbas’ age, killing a prominent human rights defender and forbidding Palestinians from voting have put Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority on their last leg. As a result, we can expect the political demise of the Palestinian Authority sooner rather than later.

But what about those pesky Islamists?

As for Hamas, things may not be as easy. Despite their fundamentalist mindset, often extremist behaviour, and inability to solve key issues in Gaza, such as 95% of the water being non-potable, the group drew unprecedented support after the recent Israel Gaza war. An opinion poll taken early June 2021 from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research finds that 77% of Palestinians believe Hamas won the last confrontation with Israel and 53% believe that Hamas deserve to represent and lead the Palestinian people. While many see Hamas’ growing popularity as a threat that can fill the political void when Abbas’ tyranny falls, this becomes unlikely when considering why their popularity has grown. Adnan Abu Amer of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace explains that Hamas did not grow in popularity because of its rhetoric to wipe Israel off the map; rather, Hamas has been seen as the only effective political actor in Palestine that retaliated against Israel and was able to protect the Al-Aqsa Mosque after its attack. With Israel not expecting Hamas’ military power, and Fatah being completely useless in a diplomatic and military sense during the recent war, it is understandable that the majority of Palestinians would approve of Hamas more. 

How much of a threat is Hamas’ growth?

Hamas’ recent spike in popularity will not lead to an Islamist dictatorship like Iran, as many are concerned with. If elections are held soon in Palestine and Hamas takes over all of the Palestinian territories, there are two most probable outcomes. Either Hamas respects the democratic system that brought them power like many other religious political parties across the world and fight for power in a democratic way, or they attempt to create an authoritarian Islamic republic like that of Iran. While the latter is a serious problem, that system of governing in Palestine is unsustainable in the long term. To start, unlike the Ayatollah in Iran that makes nearly all important religious and political decisions due to the Shiite religious hierarchy giving him the ultimate religious and political power, there is no religious hierarchy among Sunni Muslims that gives one person the religious ability to make important political decisions. Likewise, Dr. Nakhleh expands by saying that “Palestinians are far more secular on average and educated than Hamas itself. If Hamas starts becoming authoritarian, the Palestinian people will reject Hamas’ ways and find another political group to represent them.” Many Palestinians that support Hamas’ recent actions against Israel do not want Hamas to implement their fundamentalist interpretation of Sharia law. In the end, Hamas will either respect the desire of Palestinians for an independent, democratic state or go on an authoritarian path that will quickly be rejected and deposed.  

The Israeli shift

Likewise, political change has already started to happen in Israel. Along with an increasing number of dissenting voices inside Israel protesting and criticizing Israel’s political aggression, the country has gained a new Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, ending Benjamin Netenyahu’s 15-year rule. Bennett and his ultra-right Yamina party were able to form a political coalition with several other political parties right after the ceasefire was agreed upon. This massive coalition included the centrist party Yesh Atid headed by politician and journalist Yair Lapid, who will become Prime Minister after Bennett, and the United Arab list, the first Arab party that will be part of the Israeli government for the first time in the country’s history. 

While Bennett’s government has made it clear he will not discuss or negotiate a process for peace with the Palestinians, he did agree with the United Arab List’s demand to start increasing funding and development for Arab sectors in Israel. With their living conditions, many consider the life of Arab-Israeli’s as apartheid or at best, one step down from it, with Arab towns having far worse infrastructure, schools, roads, fields, and far higher poverty and unemployment rates. While Israel gives its Arab citizens the right to vote in Israel’s democratic elections, a right that Arabs are not granted in many Arab countries, these disparities, as well as discriminatory laws targeting many Arab houses in Israel for demolition and preventing Arab citizens from seeing their spouses in the West Bank and Gaza, make life far harder for Arab citizens of Israel, especially considering how previous Israeli administrations used their Arab citizens as show ponies to legitimize their democracy while simultaneously disenfranchising them. As a result, the success of the Israeli government to build these communities as well as the success of Yair Lapid as a foreign minister to be on good terms with Arab nations around Israel before becoming Prime Minister could be a huge step forward that could catapult a peace process in the near future.

The rapid amount of change that has happened on several different levels is just the breath of fresh air that this political quagmire needed, considering that years have gone by without any serious changes. While it is often easy to disregard public unrest as merely a trend that won’t solidify to any political changes, we have already seen the political impact of shifting political ideals on Israel and Palestine in the West as well as in Israel and the Palestinian territories. The political pressure on President Biden and the Democratic Party to take stronger actions towards Israeli transgressions can shift American-Israeli policy for years to come. The inevitable collapse of Fatah could potentially give an opportunity for a democracy in Palestine that improves Palestinian living conditions. In Israel, the potential success of the new government to mend diplomatic ties with neighboring countries and improve the lives of Arabs in Israel can potentially catapult a new path for peace. With significant political and social change already making a monumental impact on so many different levels, the continued public conversation and political shifts could create a promising modality that prioritizes human rights and personal dignity for all citizens involved.