Gavin Newsom has alluded to running for president multiple times in the last few years following a successful recall avoidance and a steamroll reelection win in 2022, but when would he run? And if he runs…could he win?

According to Berkeley professor of politics Dan Schnur, “Yeah, he’s definitely running for president, the only question is where he’s running in 2024 or 2028.”

The 2021 Recall

In 2021, the Republican opposition started a campaign to recall Governor Gavin Newsom. That had only been done successfully in 2003, when Californians inexplicably elected the actor Arnold Schwarzenegger as their governor, something that by all accounts did not work out for the state.

Despite seemingly having a budget the size of their hubris, Republicans ultimately failed at recalling Newsom and gaining control of California. Instead, Democratic support was galvanized under Newsom, who avoided a recall during the campaign trail by instituting policies to rebuild from the pandemic that gained him the near 62% supermajority to remain governor.

A big contribution to his reelection was his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which Republicans presented as negative and desperately ran on when advocating for his recall. In 2020, Newsom swiftly implemented economic strategies that prioritized public safety by shutting down and subsidizing small businesses to mitigate viral spread and financial hardship. While this stalled the California economy in tandem with the rest of the country, California Republicans took it as an opportunity to attempt a recall in 2021. As 2021 went on, Newsom began to galvanize support by continuing to implement policies that benefited the state, leading to an increase in support leading into the recall election. His supermajority was much larger than predicted, likely due to policies that directly benefited college students and senior citizens, leading to a wider age demographic arriving at the polls.

This huge win cultivated a cascade of questions about a possible presidential bid for Newsom, but can he win? And if so, when should he run?

The 2022 Midterms

Midterm elections are often a good indicator of whether or not a potential candidate is fit to run for President. During the 2022 midterms, Gavin Newsom reinforced his widespread popularity in California.

He easily won reelection, steamrolling Republican candidate Brian Dahle in a race that was never a fair fight given his popularity and the political makeup of the state. During what would have been his gubernatorial campaign trail, Newsom was raising his national profile by implementing popular policies and doing PR stunts in other states, such as buying billboards in Republican states. This surge in popularity led to Newsom receiving a 60% majority win, which was higher than polling suggested. 

While the reasons for his win in 2022 are similar to those of the 2021 recall, Newsom now seems to have become one of the primary faces of the Democratic party nationwide. The 2022 midterm has given him a lot of momentum that would have been useful if he had chosen to run in 2024.

Will He Run in 2024?

Newsom has said on multiple occasions that he does not want to run in 2024, jokingly stating: “I never trust politicians, so I get why you keep asking.” However, it’s common for politicians to hide their intention of running for higher office until a campaign is planned. It’s likely that Newsom realizes the support that he would have in a presidential election, but he continues to assert that he prefers to stay in California and finish his work. He has a strong loyalty to the state and its people, and is clearly committed to fixing infrastructure and building back the California economy.

While politicians love to lie about their political aspirations, it’s likely that Newsom is telling the truth about not running in 2024. Regardless, he likely has the national recognition and financial support to facilitate a run in 2024. 

Despite Newsom’s possible political advantage, the Democratic party should back Biden or Harris as its primary candidate in the upcoming presidential election because a Newsom campaign would inevitably split the party, as California would back him.

On Nov. 26th, Newsom said explicitly that he would not challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination, and that he would focus all his energy on California in the next election cycle. 

How Realistic is a Newsom 2024 Win?

Whether Biden or Newsom runs, a win is in the cards for not only the Democrats, but could have been for Newsom in particular. After the failure of the Republicans’ “Red Wave” in the 2022 midterms, the Democrats will have a lot of momentum heading into the next election cycle. After a Georgia win, the Senate (at 51-49) has ended up in the hands of the Democrats, a large surprise given what political pundits have been predicting for the last year. The House, however, has ended up in the hands of the Republicans, splitting the chambers and making a full Democrat government impossible for at least two years. Regardless of the split, Democrats have garnered enough support to justify hope in the 2024 election whether they are running against Trump or DeSantis, both of whom have enough support to win the Republican nomination.

If Gavin were to run and presumably win the Democratic nomination, what would his chances of winning against Trump or DeSantis look like? 

DeSantis would be a much easier opponent for Newsom to defeat. Having both been governor of their states with high partisan support, DeSantis would assuredly win Florida with Newsom carrying the bicoastal blue states. The real challenge between the two would be the Rust Belt that changed the tide of the past two elections. Arizona will most likely stay blue despite 2022 results implying red results, with Michigan and Pennsylvania likely staying blue as well. After the 2022 results, Nevada and Georgia very well may turn red for the presidential race, given the difficulty in flipping those states in 2020, something that could have the possibility of a Newsom presidency. However, Newsom had the political acumen and popularity to sway many voters, not to mention his charisma, to win against DeSantis in 2024.

Trump is a whole different story. Support for him seems to have waned to a degree in his absence, though some Republicans nationwide are wishing for his return, for some reason. After his recent confirmation of a 2024 run, Trump now has a lot of time to regain (or lose) his previous base. The split evident in the Republican party after the 2022 midterms will most likely benefit Trump, who thrives in chaos as the performer he is at heart, though as of now he is at a major disadvantage after his recent exploits. 

If Trump is able to gain the support needed for the Republican nomination, Newsom may find much more trouble in 2024. Trump won historically because of the Rust Belt states in 2016, and lost when non-Rust Belt states flipped. Assuming the Rust Belt stays as close as it was in 2020, Trump may have to angle his focus towards the lost red states in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Those were key to his victory and instrumental in his defeat in 2020. If Newsom can win those he would have definitely had a good chance at winning.

Newsom’s policies are just moderate enough to win in a lot of formerly red states, and just progressive enough to win over the left-wing voters that were galvanized under Bernie in 2016 and 2020. Though Newsom is not running, it is still worth noting the possibility of a win he could have had in 2024 given all that has been discussed.

Will He Run in 2028?

One of the most assured things among all the possibilities discussed here is a run in 2028 by Newsom. 

There are two scenarios that would keep Newsom from running in 2028. For one, if Kamala Harris or another Democrat were to win in 2024, it would likely lead him to back their reelection campaign. The second is if the second term of his governorship does not go well, leaving him without the national support that he has garnered these past few years. A Harris campaign is the more likely possibility between these with a 2024 run very much in the cards for her pending Biden’s reelection campaign decision. If Harris were to run and win, Newsom would refrain from running in 2028 as a way to support the Democratic candidate.

As long as none of those things happen, Newsom will run and will most likely win the primary and Democratic nomination. With support from both coasts, Newsom will be hard to deny when it comes to the primary elections, and his campaign would likely mirror Obama’s 2008 campaign, where bicoastal support allowed him to pass Hillary Clinton in the votes needed to win the nomination. Specifically, Newsom would garner that same support with a guarantee from California, which has historically influenced Oregon, Washington, and Arizona. He would also be able to carry the northeast region down to Virginia, as they recently have followed suit with California. Whoever he may be running against for the Democratic nomination would struggle without the help of California alone, leaving a sweeping victory ahead of him.
Whether or not he runs in 2028 is still not a guarantee, as he has said he does not want to be President at all, which is at least a white lie meant to lead the attention of potential candidacy astray. Instead, I would argue that he is only postponing a run to make sure Californians support him without gaining resentment for potentially leaving his position for higher office. Regardless of what he says, the DNC will definitely push him to run in 2028. 

How Realistic is a 2028 Win?

A run in 2028 would be more of a slam dunk win than 2024. Assuming Kamala Harris does not run, Newsom will either be running for a post-Biden presidency or reclaim the presidency from the Republicans, who with almost absolute certainty will not run the country well enough to garner reelection, according to their history of anti-American, pro-corporation policies.

Newsom will most likely run against DeSantis, with not many other Republican stars really angling to the presidency as of now. There are no rising personalities that could garner the same nationwide support that DeSantis has, which all but guarantees a nomination for him in 2028 with the assumption that he does not bomb in 2024.

As political polarization continues, there may be a rise in third parties, especially with Gen Z’s disgust for party politics. The upcoming voting generation does not particularly align itself with parties as much as values, which could result in increased use of third-party votes by the time 2028 rolls around, especially when those born in 2010 gain the eligibility to vote (crazy, I know). This increase in third parties could throw the party balance out of whack and lead to a much crazier election cycle, but this remains to be seen. 

Despite possible political party issues coming to fruition in this election, it is a much surer bet that Newsom would win against whoever challenges him, assuming the previous president is Biden or a Republican. Despite his predominately moderate stances, Newsom would be seen as the “progressive” step forward and would easily win over a multitude of voter bases with his policies.

What Policies of His Would Hurt or Help the Most?

One of the biggest policy issues that could ruin a presidential run is his stance on homelessness, which may drive away the progressive vote. Earlier this year, he stalled over a billion dollars in homelessness funding, instead opting for a do-over on the plans that dozens of cities were planning to implement. He implied that he wanted to instead focus on results-based plans that would get people off the street, even if that meant jail time. Homelessness has become a big issue for progressives, many of whom believe that housing is a human right, which is conversely something Newsom clearly does not believe himself. Instead, he has taken a staunch anti-homeless stance that would drive away much of the progressive vote.

His renewable energy and environmental policies seem like they may drive away voters from all angles. Whether it is declining to shut down a nuclear power plant, signing a bill to make California “carbon neutral” by 2045, or by banning the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035, Newsom’s environmental policies have consistently failed to garner bipartisan voter support.

In his refusal to shut down the plant, he angered many environmental groups. His administration argued that the plant was too valuable of a resource for many in the area, providing much needed power for local residents and businesses. On the other hand, environmental groups argued that the plant was polluting and ruining the ecosystem. His carbon-neutral plan has the potential to harm businesses, which would likely lead to a lack of support from moderates. This potential lack of moderate voting power could then be reinforced by his much maligned bill to ban the sale of gas-powered cars, which many have misunderstood as a  widespread ban on gas-powered cars in their entirety. In this, he has failed to consider how inaccessible the average electric car is, partly due to US inflation in the last decade.

His economic policies should not be overlooked when it comes to the possibility of a presidential run. He has made many economic decisions that have increased his popularity among progressives and moderate voters alike, such as raising the minimum wage and instituting small business aid. His handling of the COVID-19 crisis also gives him lots of credibility with those voters, having saved the lives of many people with his swift vaccine and shutdown regulations. While the COVID response can drive away some more right-leaning voters, his free market policies and small business grants are sure to lure some back, giving him a much wider voter base in a national election.

My Guess

With the way his national spotlight has grown, and the media attention he has gotten for himself, I would have been surprised if he attempted a run in 2024. However, he would have won the general election if given the opportunity, despite a predicted loss to Biden or Harris in the primaries. Running would have ultimately been a bad move for him in the 2024 election, as he has not grown to a degree that would guarantee a win in the primaries and the general election together.

Assuming he keeps his promise and does not run in 2024, his 2028 run is assured, and so is a win. In the absence of a Harris repeat, there is a very real possibility that he runs and wins in 2028. A win in 2028 would give Californians a progressive, not terrible, version of Ronald Reagan, another governor who gained national attention due to his policies and won decisively after declining an earlier possible run. 

Overall, Newsom seems poised to run for president and eventually win, as if he was hand-picked by some divine force (or political machine) to be the perfect Democratic candidate. He has the charm and wit to win over the debate-loving voters, who look only for a personality, policy and political history to win over more scrutinous voters, and the progressive angle to win some more of Gen Z and other progressives.

Edited by Abigail Loomis