Introduction

The 2024 presidential election is set, and it looks mighty familiar. In a seemingly reoccurring nightmare, instead of Vice President Joe Biden facing off against incumbent President Donald Trump, we have President Joe Biden against four-time indictee and convicted criminal Donald Trump (who is probably in court as you are reading this). However, one major change between 2020 and 2024 is the issue of abortion.

While then-candidate Biden ran on abortion in 2020, it didn’t strike the same chord with voters as it does now. Instead of saying that conservatives may overturn Roe v. Wade, Democrats in 2024 can now tell voters that it has happened, and the worst may be yet to come. It was the Republicans who were able to run on this issue for decades to rile up their base, and now as a result of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the issue has been teed up for Democrats to take advantage of. All they need to do is swing.

In the increasingly polarized American electoral map, there are only a couple of key states that will decide the presidency and control of Congress. In a stroke of luck for Democrats running in those states, many of them also have (or most likely will have) ballot measures on the question of abortion next to them.

In my previous article I wrote for the Davis Political Review, I argued against California’s ballot measure system. However, I noted that ballot measures can be a tool for good. In the 2022 midterms, California voters enshrined abortion rights into the constitution through Proposition 1. Voters in the deep red states of Kentucky and Kansas rejected ballot propositions that would have outlawed abortion in their respective states. Since Dobbs, the reproductive freedom movement has not lost a ballot proposition race—even in the deep red states listed above and swing states such as Ohio and Michigan.

With this in mind, as we approach the 2024 election, the existence of potential reproductive freedom ballot measures seems like a political gold mine for Democrats — voters care about it, you can run on it, and they will be reminded of it as they look at their ballot to vote for your name a bit above the proposition. Three states — Maryland, New York, and Florida — have confirmed abortion measures on the ballot for the 2024 general election, and it seems many more are to come. In this article, I will analyze some of those states with ballot measures and show how they are vital to ensure Democratic victories in both the presidential and congressional elections. Following this analysis, I will conclude with four simple words for Democratic candidates nationwide: It’s Abortion Rights, Stupid.

Arizona

In 2020, the state of Arizona and its 11 electoral votes went to President Joe Biden by around 11,000 votes — a razor-thin margin in national elections. Further, the Senate seat held by former-Democrat-now-Independent Kyrsten Sinema is up for grabs between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican MAGA candidate Kari Lake. A key issue that will affect both of these races is abortion, and while a ballot proposition to enshrine the right in the state constitution has not yet been approved, it has reached the required amount of signatures to do so. This issue has been supercharged by the recent State Supreme Court decision to enforce a law banning abortion that was passed in 1864 — 48 years before Arizona became a state. The law had long been dormant due to the Supreme Court upholding abortion rights in Roe v. Wade, but as a result of Dobbs, the State Court decided that it should be enforced again. Thus, the issue will be ever-present in the minds of Arizonans as they go to vote in November, potentially increasing turnout and giving Democrats a much-needed boost in these critical races.

Nevada

Traveling north from the Copper State to the Silver State, a potential abortion ballot measure may make all the difference in the state of Nevada. Along with Arizona, President Biden won Nevada in 2020 by a slightly larger but still razor-thin margin. Along with Nevada’s six electoral votes, the state also has a senatorial election between incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen and the presumptive Republican candidate Sam Brown. Nevada is set to be a true test for Democrats, as they must hold onto Rosen’s seat to hold onto a Senate majority. In the 2022 midterm elections, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won her race by some 9,000 votes.

While an abortion measure is not officially on the ballot, it seems likely that one will be. The measure recently overcame a challenge by anti-abortion groups to get the measure kicked off the ballot. This proposed measure would make reproductive freedom a fundamental right enshrined in the Nevada constitution. Having this initiative on the ballot is crucial for Democrats, as other elections show that getting an abortion measure on the ballot increases turnout. In a state where just a couple of thousand votes can make all the difference, any way to boost turnout is necessary for Democratic success.

Montana

Turn your sights up north yet again to the Big Sky Country of Montana — the land of bison and one very important and tightly contested Senate race. Senator Jon Tester is a rare Democrat in a state where every statewide office is now held by a Republican. Senator Tester faces off against Tim Sheehy, an ex-Navy Seal. This race is essential to the Democrats holding onto their slim Senate majority, as without it, they will likely only be able to reach a maximum of 49 seats. This race, as expected, will be very close. Senator Tester has never won more than 51% of the vote in any of his three previous Senate elections, and in a state in which President Trump won by over 16 points in 2020, this will be the most difficult test of his career. In an era that seems to spell the end of split-ticket voting, Tester needs to define his campaign along lines that a majority of voters support — common-sense abortion laws.

Montana, as of now, has abortion protections in the state constitution under the right to privacy. However, Republicans in the state have tried to pursue restrictions to undermine these protections. In 2022, an anti-abortion ballot measure was defeated by around five percentage points. In a seemingly hopeless situation for Senator Tester, this may be the glimmer of light he was looking for. Pro-choice Montanans filed paperwork to put a measure on the ballot that would affirm abortion protection in the state constitution. While the measure is now seeking signatures, it still faces many legal challenges to get on the ballot. However, if it does manage to get on the ballot, it would be a political lifeline for Senator Tester. It may encourage pro-choice voters to go out to vote, raising turnout and giving the Senator additional votes in a critical election. 

Florida

Turning from the land of big sky to the land of sunshine, a ballot measure concerning reproductive rights is confirmed to be on the Florida ballot this upcoming election. This measure would codify abortion protections into the state constitution until viability. This measure is pertinent, as it would override the state’s current six-week ban set to be put in place on May 1. While Florida, once the major swing state, has seemingly solidified as a red state in recent years, the chances for a pickup are still possible. Trump won the state by around 120,000 votes in 2016 and increased his margin of victory to 371,000 in 2020. It does not seem that this once ever-present swing state will go blue again soon, but with a combination of “radical” ballot measures on abortion and marijuana, it is certainly not out of the realm of consideration. An increased turnout among voters, especially young voters, may be enough to flip Florida back into the Democratic column.

This whole exercise on Florida may seem like an Aaron Sorkin West-Wing type plot line, a liberal dream that is far outside the scope of reality, but it is worth considering given how volatile the state has been in the past. Another outcome of the abortion ballot measure is that it could help the Democratic candidate, no matter who that ends up being after the August 20th primary, beat incumbent Senator Rick Scott. Importantly, this is one of the only opportunities this election cycle the Democrats may have a chance to pick up rather than defend a seat. Thus, this ballot measure may be crucial to helping the Democrats maintain a Senate majority or even win the presidency.

Maryland

In contrast with the two states above, Maryland is a deep blue state, and the Senate race may seem like an afterthought — stick it in the blue column. However, things there are not so simple due to the rare quality of the Republican candidate for Senate in the state. Larry Hogan, Republican and former governor of the state, entered the race in February of this year. Hogan has name recognition, bipartisan appeal, and enough support to win a gubernatorial seat in a deep blue state, making him a formidable opponent for even the best Democratic candidate in the state.

Recent polling had the former governor up by double digits over a hypothetical opponent, which shows this may be an unexpectedly tough race. However, the Democrats are aided by the Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative, confirmed to be on the ballot this November. Hogan has tried to appear neutral on the issue, but in 2022, he vetoed a bill in the state that would have allowed for increased access to the procedure. To make matters worse for him, when the Democratically controlled legislature overrode his veto, he used his powers to block non-physicians from performing abortions.

To win in a deep blue state like Maryland, a Republican candidate must have a broad appeal that can swing some moderates to his side. While Hogan is outspoken against Trump, the issue of abortion may make this race unwinnable once November comes around. Putting the issue on the ballot turns this from a political talking point to an actual issue voters will directly vote on when they go to the ballot box. Democrats will run ad after ad blasting the former governor for his abortion positions, no matter how much he tries to distance himself, so the issue will be front and center as voters fill out the Senate portion of the ballot. Put shortly, the existence of this initiative is bad news for Hogan’s attempt to recreate his bipartisan appeal.

New York

New York, the last state to have a confirmed abortion ballot measure, does not intuitively seem to matter as much electorally as the states described above. Like Maryland, it is also a deep blue state where former President Trump has little to no chance to win — either in politics or in the courtroom. Further, unlike Maryland, the Senate race in New York does not seem competitive enough to warrant analysis. But, New York does have seven competitive House seats that may decide the majority in the chamber. Following a tumultuous redistricting process, seven seats are rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report. The Republicans currently have a majority of less than 5 seats and control of the chamber could come down to certain key races — those in New York included.

In a recent special election to replace the seat previously held by George Santos, the victor — Democrat Tom Suozzi — ran on abortion and won. Abortion is still the winning strategy for Democrats around the country, and Suozzi’s success only proves this effect still has a tangible impact. A measure that would protect against discrimination during pregnancy and limit the government’s role during the process will increase turnout by drumming up support among pro-choice New Yorkers. In such close House races, these voters (who may have not seen the urgency to vote before) will come out and vote blue along with the proposition. Therefore, the effect of abortion ballot measures has a real impact on the 2024 election, in both red, blue, and swing states. 

It’s Abortion Rights, Stupid

In Bill Clinton’s candidacy for president in 1992, his lead strategist, James Carville, uttered four famous words that helped propel President Clinton to the White House: It’s the economy, stupid. The United States was experiencing an economic recession under President George H. W. Bush, Clinton’s opponent, and Carville advised Clinton to focus on a single issue: the economy. My advice to all Democrats running for office is to alter that phrase a bit. Instead of running on the economy, which is statistically good under Democrats despite public perception, the Democrats need to instill four simple words into their campaigns in 2024: It’s Abortion Rights, Stupid. Put it on a poster, put it on a banner, put it on a bus; no matter what, the path of least resistance for Democrats is to run on the issue that they are strongest at in both public perception and public polling — 61% of Americans opposed the Dobbs decision and 52% identify as pro-choice.

House and Senate candidates around the country should follow the lead of candidates who won in 2022 and special elections running on reproductive freedom. The Republicans did the opposite for decades when abortion was legal, and now is the time to capitalize on the issue suddenly becoming viable for Democrats. Despite President Biden’s low approval numbers, if he runs on abortion, he stands a fighting chance. Not only that, his chances are furthered by running alongside ballot propositions in key states if he increases his public image as the reproductive freedom candidate. If I could tell anything to President Biden, it would be this: It’s Abortion Rights, Stupid.